Monday, October 14, 2013

10/14/2013 Daily Update: Brighter Columbus Day, Nari Approaches Vietnam, Octave Nears Baja California, CA Quake Swarm

Good afternoon everyone!

It's Columbus Day and unlike the past two days, look forward to brighter conditions with temps in the mid 60s.

COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Winds from the SW at 5 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with lows in the mid 40s. Winds are calm.

TOMORROW: Partly to mostly sunny with highs around 70 degrees. Winds from the S at 5 mph.

A few showers maybe late Wednesday, but generally a quiet week with fair skies ahead.


ATLANTIC TROPICS

  • Come on, the Patriots and the Red Sox made miraculous comebacks yesterday. Maybe you can be inspired and take a page out of them?

NATIONAL WEATHER

  • Dry in the Northeast save a few sprinkles out along the Great Lakes.
  • Spotty showers in the Virginias and Carolinas, otherwise warm and dry for the South, Southeast, and the Gulf
  • Showers and thunderstorms up and down the Plains today, a few could be severe especially in Kansas and Nebraska
  • Dry and cool for the West Coast

WORLD WEATHER

  • Nari is about to make landfall in central Vietnam. Nari is a Category 1 typhoon with sustained winds of 85 mph, gusting at 105 mph. Evacuations are in full force and Vietnam is probably used to tropical cyclones by now. Nari killed 13 people in the Philippines last Friday.
  • Wipha in the Western Pacific is weakening as it swings toward Japan from cooler waters. Wipha is expected to pass offshore of Tokyo by Tuesday-Wednesday, though the storm should remain relatively weak around borderline typhoon status which means Tokyo will probably experience winds less than typhoon criteria. Heavy rain is the main concern and Fukushima may be impacted by the rains, possibly hindering the clean-up process from the damaged reactors.
  • While the Atlantic struggles to produce, the Eastern Pacific is outpacing them in the number of storms with the latest, Tropical Storm Priscilla, forming 700 miles south of the Baja California Peninsula. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Octave has prompted Tropical Storm Warnings along the coast of Baja California, bringing heavy rains and winds today.
  • Stubborn low spinning near the English Channel is dumping rain over the UK, France, and areas around them.
  • A few showers and storms invading NE Australia and we see a few showers over Tasmania again.
Nari approaching central Vietnam (Credit: CIMSS)
Tiny Octave set to impact Baja California (Credit: CIMSS)

EARTHQUAKES

  • An earthquake swarm is occurring on the southern end of the San Andreas fault. No need to be alarmed as they do occur from time to time. An earthquake swarm don't always precede a large earthquake but always be prepared regardless.
  • There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.
An earthquake swarm in Southern California that started last night.
Generally in the 2-point range, some higher in the 3s. Highest registered
was a 3.6 this morning. (Credit: USGS)

SPACE WEATHER

  • The Earth-directed CME from Saturday night is expected to buffer Earth's magnetosphere tomorrow or Wednesday. Analysis shows speeds are weak though so most likely, only a minor event with auroras confined in the poles.
  • A C8.0-solar flare (near M-class range) from Sunspot 1865 was detected this morning at 13:15 UTC. Sunspots 1861 and 1865 are the most unstable and they are both to turn away from Earth-facing position. M-class flare chances are at 40% and X-class flare chances are 10% in the next 24 hours.
  • Solar wind speeds have ramped up to 446.0 km/sec and densities low at 5.9 protons/cm^3 per last update meaning solar wind stream from a coronal hole has reached Earth. Auroras possible in high latitudes.
1865 spit out a C-flare this morning and along with 1861 are
the ones to monitor for activity (Credit: SpaceWeather.com)

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