10/31/2013 Daily Update: Preparing for High Winds and Heavy Rains Tomorrow, Strong 6.3 Quake Rattles Taiwan

Good morning everyone and Happy Halloween!

For today, expect a mostly cloudy day with chances of showers increasing in the afternoon and evening hours. Showers will become more widespread and winds are going to pick up as well. On Friday, gusts could reach as high as 40 mph inland, 60 mph near the coast along with heavy, soaking rain. Milder conditions thanks to the gusty SW winds, highs will be around 70 degrees. Temps are only going to go downhill from there... back into the 40s by Sunday.

• A wide swath of rain and wind stretching from the Great Lakes to Texas. Severe weather possible from Ohio to Louisiana. Heavy rain more of a threat though, reports of flooding coming in from Louisiana. This system heads east for tomorrow.
• A strong 6.3 earthquake struck the island of Taiwan centered 45km SSW of Hualian this morning East Coast time. Buildings shook a wide area, including the capital. No immediate damage of reports, remains to be seen how severe it was after evaluation is completed. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/10/31/earthquake-eastern-taiwan-usgs/3323215/
• Typhoon Krosa is making landfall in the northern Philippines as a moderately-strong Category 2 typhoon. No reports of deaths or damage so far. Krosa moves into the South China Sea and is on path for Vietnam.
• A low is bringing more rain for the U.K. 15 lives were lost after the strong windstorm moved through. http://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/deadly-weather-claims-15-lives-in-europe-29709907.html
• Thunderstorms impacting Queensland, also a few showers and storms for northern Western Australia
• Auroras were seen in the arctic regions, a CME is expected to impact today. Flaring has been low after the X-class flare 2 days ago. Sunspot 1884 could change the script though, having the magnetic complexity capable of blasting a strong flare. It is almost directly facing Earth.

1884 has potential for flares. Others are weak or stable.
(Credit: SolarHam.net)

10/30/2013 Daily Update: A Few Light Wintry Mix This Morning, Midwest Severe Weather, X2-flare from Departing Sunspot

Good morning everyone!

Yes, a few sleet and snow showers are showing up on radar across the Berkshires and the hilltowns this morning. These should not last into the afternoon... the rest of the day is dry but mostly cloudy.

TODAY: Rain showers or a light wintry mix in the morning, turning mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs in the lower to mid 50s. Winds from the W at 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with lows in the lower to mid 30s. Winds will be calm.

TOMORROW: A chance of a shower, otherwise mostly cloudy, warmer, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Showers becoming more numerous heading into the evening into Friday. A bit breezy with winds from the S at 5 to 15 mph, gusting over 25 mph at times.

A gusty rainstorm is expected to arrive Thursday night and Friday. Although temperatures rise into the 60s, and possibly 70, winds are going to be howling from the SW. Gusts could reach over 40 mph from a strengthening low moving across the Great Lakes.

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Chilly with spotty showers this morning in the Northeast
• Warm and dry in the Southeast with the exception of Florida where a few showers are possible along the coast.
• A round of severe storms for the Missouri valley stretching into Texas. Here's the area outlined from SPC: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
• Milder across the Northwest and the Rockies
• Breezy and cool in the West Coast and the Southwest

WORLD WEATHER

• Tropical Storm Krosa develops east of Philippines and expected to make landfall either as a strong tropical storm or a typhoon.
• Raymond is starting to fizzle in the Eastern Pacific. Down to a depression now.
• Rain doesn't want to stop in the U.K. but most of the other areas are clearing out in the wake of the strong windstorm Sunday-Monday.
• A few showers and storms in northern Australia, this time the south seeking relief from high pressure

Krosa nears the Philippines (Credit: Wunderground)

EARTHQUAKES

• A 6.0 earthquake struck the Ballany Islands Region near Antarctica. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usc000kqkf#summary
• A strong 6.2 earthquake hit the coast of Chile near Constitucion. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usc000kr9k#summary

SPACE WEATHER

• Yes, another X-flare again unleashed by Sunspot 1875 on the far western limb of the sun. It was measured as an X2-flare and no direct hit from a CME is expected given the location of the event. By my count, it's the 4th X-class flare in the last 6 days. Sunspots on the eastern side are turning to face Earth and any flaring would most likely be geo-effective. In particular, Sunspot 1884 has a "beta-gamma-delta" magnetic configuration, with energy capable of launching a moderate to strong flare.
• Impacts from past CMEs have caused several magnetic disturbances but none have reached storm levels. A CME may glance Earth tomorrow from an M4-class flare from Sunspot 1882 on October 28th.

Sunspot 1875 delivered a X-class flare as it says good-bye. 1884
has energy for a strong flare. (Credit: SolarHam.net)

10/29/2013 Daily Update: Cold Tuesday, Rain/Wind by End of Week

Good morning everyone!

Less wind but a cold day in store. Highs today will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Winds from the N at 5 mph.

A good soaker looks to be in the works for the end of the week, coinciding with Halloween. Heavy rain and strong winds are the threats.

NOTE: Today is the anniversary of Hurricane Sandy and the 2011 October nor'easter.

• Raymond still wandering in the Eastern Pacific, most likely going to dissipate soon.
• New tropical depression 29 forms east of the Philippines
• Severe weather possible in the Midwest tonight. This is a system that will spread east and produce a wide swath of rain and wind by the end of the week.
• Western Europe still dealing with rain on the backside of the powerful storm that has now moved into NE Europe.
• Some rain in northern Australia; another storm system heading toward New Zealand
• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.
• A geomagnetic disturbance is ongoing but fairly weak. More CMEs expected to glance Earth. Sunspots are quieting down but do hold potential for a moderate to strong flare.

10/28/2013 Daily Update: Typical Autumn Feel Today, Hurricane-force Wind Gusts Strike Europe, 3rd X-flare in 4 Days

Good morning everyone!

Mostly sunny day with highs in the mid 50s. Winds should be fairly less active from the NW at 5 to 15 mph.

• A wild day in Western Europe with hurricane-force wind gusts striking the U.K. into France. The storm system is responsible for four deaths, including a 17-year old girl who died when a tree fell onto her home. Flooding and high winds caused travel delays, prompted road closures and forced flight cancellations in airports. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/hurricane-force-winds-batter-britain-causing-flooding-travel-delays/article15113839/
• Hurricane Raymond in the Eastern Pacific is slowly moving north and drifting east but no landfalls expected.
• Tropical Cyclone One in the South Indian Ocean is weakening and perhaps hit a brick wall.
• The Northern Rockies are dealing with a blizzard. Heavy snow from Alberta, Canada down to Wyoming.
• A few severe storms possible in the Midwest
• Expecting rains and high winds start to subside gradually as the storm system moves out of Western Europe, tracking toward Northeast Europe.
• Most of Australia is under the influence of high pressure, showers and storms for New Zealand.
• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.
• Another X-class flare erupted from the sun this morning. This marks the 3rd X-class flare in the last 4 days. The culprit for this one was Sunspot 1875, which is departing from the visible disk. It was measured on the low side of the X-class scale - an X1-flare. The sunspots on the left-side taking over also have the means to produce a large flare. A spike in wind speed signaling the arrival of a CME was detected last night but weak. So far, no direct hits, merely glancing blows. More glancing CME arrivals are possible. Keep an eye out on the sun.

Incoming sunspot 1882 have potential to
produce a large flare, in addition to 1875 and 1877
(Credit: SpaceWeather.com)

10/27/2013 Daily Update: Fine Autumn Sunday, Potent Storms Impacting Europe, India Flooding

Good afternoon everyone!

A fine day...going to be breezy yet again but typical autumn day. Should be more of the same to start the workweek.

TODAY: Partly sunny with highs in the mid 50s. Winds from the W at 10 mph, with higher gusts at times.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Calm winds.

TOMORROW: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid 50s. Winds from the W at 10 to 20 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Showers for the Great Lakes otherwise a cool autumn day for the Northeast
• Comfortable weather for the Southeast, a few storms along the Louisiana coast
• Mild air for the heart of the country
• Rain for the Northwest

WORLD WEATHER

• India dealing with relentless flash flooding from monsoonal rains. Tens of thousands evacuated, casualties reported. pic.twitter.com/ypQZvp2U5q
  — Western MA Wx (@WMassWx) October 26, 2013 

• Another tornado strikes the U.K. on the eastern side of a powerful low in the Northern Atlantic. 964mb to be exact. pic.twitter.com/2Mzf3wVcBx
  — Western MA Wx (@WMassWx) October 26, 2013

• Raymond in the Eastern Pacific strengthens into a hurricane, but no impacts to land expected.
• First tropical cyclone of the season forms in the Southern Indian Ocean which is moving west toward Madagascar.
• High winds and potent storms impacting Western Europe.
• Some showers in Southeast Australia, a few showers across Western Australia as well.

Tropical Cyclone 01S forms in the South Indian Ocean (Credit: JTWC)

EARTHQUAKES

• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.

SPACE WEATHER

• Kind of surprising only weak CME impacts to Earth after a series of moderate to strong flares erupted from the sun over the last few days. The eastern limb of the sun has been exploding but none really directed at Earth. Flares have quieted down though potential remains for a M- or X-class flare. Awaiting the glancing blows from the CMEs of last week's X-flares.

10/26/2013 Daily Update: Teeth-Chattering Cold Saturday, Powerful 7.1 Earthquake Strikes Japan, 2 X-class Flares

Good morning everyone!

It was a biting, teeth-chattering, cold start to the weekend with many areas reaching down into the 20s to start the day today. A cruel reminder that winter is near. Temps do rebound into the 50s, but brings little relief against the harsh winds, possibly gusting as high as 30 mph in the afternoon. At least it's going to be sunny and dry. Have a great day!

TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny with highs in the lower to mid 50s. Winds from the SW at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

TONIGHT: Turning cloudier with lows in the lower to mid 30s. Winds from the SW at 10 to 15 mph.

TOMORROW: Mostly sunny with highs in the lower to mid 50s. Winds from the W at 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Showers along with some lake-effect snows up in the Great Lakes. A snowstorm for Canada north of the Great Lakes.
• A high enforcing dry weather in the Southeast and the Gulf.
• Some showers and storms for Texas with marginal instability
• Colder air diving into the Northern Plains
• Dry and mild for the Northwest

WORLD WEATHER

• Francisco and Lekima are moving away with no harm done which is great news for Japan.
• Tropical Storm Raymond in the Eastern Pacific is out in sea, having moved a fair distance from Mexico.
• More rain for the U.K., having been affected by several powerful low pressure systems recently.
• Few showers across NW and Southern Australia today

EARTHQUAKES

• A powerful 7.1 earthquake struck off the east coast of Japan. A small tsunami was triggered from the undersea earthquake but there were no signs of damage or reports of injuries. There was near the same area of the massive 9.0 earthquake in 2011, so it most likely is an aftershock and not something more serious growing. Let's hope not. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usc000kn4n#summary

SPACE WEATHER

• Another X-class flare fired from Sunspot 1882, in addition to the one from the last daily update. Expect more flares to continue in the time being as the sun has been turbulent as of late. There were 2 M-flares last night and 3 just this morning. The resulting CME from that X2-class flare may glance Earth but most of the other ones have been away from Earth. So far, no geomagnetic storms have been observed but this could change by the weekend. Sunspot 1882 is turning around to face Earth, and 1875 and 1877 also have the capability to spark a moderate one as well. Stay space weather aware folks :)

Sunspot 1882 produced 2 X-class flares yesterday and
is flaring at will (Credit: SpaceWeather.com)

10/25/2013 Daily Update: Chilly and Breezy Friday, First X-class Flare Since May!

Good morning everyone and Happy Friday!

Same kind of deal for today... chilly and breezy with winds from the NW. Highs reaching the lower 50s under mostly sunny skies.

• Tropical Storm Francisco and his twin, Typhoon Lekima, should only really be a surge maker for the coastlines of Japan. No official landfall from either of them.
• Raymond is moving out to sea in the Eastern Pacific
• Cool air for the eastern half of the U.S. with many freeze warnings in place this morning.

Light blue are Freeze Warnings (Credit: NWS)

• Western Europe dealing with another low bringing showers and storms
• Quiet for Australia; only light rain for South Island, New Zealand
• Space weather has stepped it up a notch with a major X1.7-flare from new sunspot 1882 on the far eastern limb of the sun. First since May! Because of the location, it is not Earth-directed. The sun has been crackling with M-class flares recently and not expecting the activity to die down soon.
• Barely any geomagnetic activity was observed yesterday but with the arrival of a few CMEs, this should change.

1882 produced an X-class flare, 1875 and 1877 continue
to rumble with M-flares (Credit: SolarHam.net)

X-flare! (Credit: NOAA GOES Xray Flux)

10/24/2013 Daily Update: A Chilly but Mostly Sunny Day, Increase in Solar Flaring - Near X-class!

Good morning everyone!

A chilly morning leading to a cool, blustery day. Mostly sunny with highs in the lower 50s with winds from the W at 10-15 mph with higher gusts.

• Francisco is a tropical storm and recurving just before reaching Japan.
• Super Typhoon Lekima, is strong but fortunately will dodge Japan.
• Raymond is moving away from the Mexican coast, now weakened to a tropical storm and heading out to sea.
• Lorenzo in the Atlantic down to a depression.
• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.
• Space weather has become more active. We've had 5 M-class flares since the start of yesterday, including 2 this morning. The strongest hit was last night when Sunspot 1877 released a near X-class flare, a M-9 to be exact. This is the most active the sun has been since I started doing these updates. NASA ENLIL SPIRAL is showing a large CME impact around the 26th. A geomagnetic storm could be in the offing. Watching out for additional flares... M-flare chances: 40%, X-flare chances: 5%.

Large CME impact on NASA ENLIL SPRIAL on the 26th (Credit: NASA)

These spots mean business, arguably the most intense
in months (Credit: SolarHam.net)

10/23/2013 Daily Update: Cooler Air Arrives, Lekima Reaches Category 5, Active Space Weather

Good morning everyone!

Much cooler air arrives... highs are only going to reach into the mid 50s for today. Also, there is a chance of showers especially the further SE you go. Another freezing night tonight, then a windy day tomorrow and it will feel quite chilly with the wind. Better have a jacket before heading out!

• Francisco is now a low-end Category 1 and coastal areas of Japan are about to feel the impacts a weakening tropical system.
• Super Typhoon Lekima becomes the 4th Category 5 tropical cyclone of the world. Sustained winds are at 160 mph but is recurving and should not affect any lands besides the islands of Guam and Mariana.
• Raymond is still stalled out along the Mexican coast but is starting to turn away and is weakening, now a Category 1 with 75 mph winds.
• Lorenzo in the Atlantic poses no threat to land and stays weak.
• A tornado touched down in Victoria, Australia yesterday.

(Credit: RSOE EDIS)

• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.
• Fairly active yesterday in the space weather department with two M-flares released in addition to the one from the last update, strongest of which was an M4. The source? Sunspot 1875, which is growing healthier and turned directly Earth-facing. Will have to watch for the potential of a strong flare. M-class in next 24 hours: 30%. X-class in next 24 hours: 5%.

A strong flare possible from 1875, which is directly
Earth-facing. (Credit: SpaceWeather.com)

10/22/2013 Daily Update: More Cloudy and Showery, Lorenzo Forms in the Atlantic

Good morning everyone!

Turning more cloudy throughout the day with a few, brief showers around. Also breezy as well, highs in the lower to mid 60s. Rain chances tomorrow with flurries possible in higher elevations, MUCH cooler with highs in the lower 50s. Have a good day!

• Lorenzo forms in the Atlantic, becoming the 12th storm of the season. Should remain weak with no threats to land.
• Francisco is down to a Category 1 and is less of a threat for Japan
• Lekima upgraded to a typhoon, already a Category 3 but seems to be relatively harmless save for a few islands SE of Japan
• Raymond still a major Category 3 hurricane off the SW Mexican coastline but now reversing track and turning away from Mexico
• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.
• An M1-class flare was produced by 1875 and a massive filament erupted with a partly Earth-directed CME component. Per models, a weak solar storm may impact around Thursday.

P.S. Spreadsheets used to keep track of snowfall totals for the SNE Snowfall Contest are up. They will be updated frequently and after every snowfall event. They are a good resource to keep up to date on the latest numbers. Check them out!

Massachusetts: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ajpj3kjAl76ddHlja0dKTjlVYkxFSTA5ZlhDMm10WVE&usp=sharing

Connecticut: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ajpj3kjAl76ddEN6RzBMMTlRcEVDeGtQSEs0MFVmM3c&usp=sharing

Rhode Island: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ajpj3kjAl76ddC1fRjFBWXJTbXc3c1BtN2Q1dkk5VXc&usp=sharing

10/21/2013 Daily Update: Lovely Afternoon After Cool Start, Raymond Becomes 1st Major Eastern Pacific Hurricane

Good morning everyone!

It is cold this morning with lows around freezing. We warm up for the afternoon and rebound back into the mid 60s.

TODAY: Sunny with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear with lows in the lower 40s. Winds from the S at 5 to 10 mph.

TOMORROW: A small chance of a shower in the afternoon otherwise partly sunny with highs in the lower 60s. A bit breezy with winds from the SW at 5 to 15 mph.

A substantial blast of cold air awaiting on Wednesday. Forget 60s, highs may barely reach 50! That's how cold this airmass will be. Also is the chance of snow flurries Wednesday night with a low departing south of the region. Low confidence as recent runs take the low too far south without having any impact. We will see what happens but rather or not it snows, winter will definitely be evident by Wednesday!

ATLANTIC TROPICS

• Holy crap. The Atlantic suddenly comes out fighting. A tropical wave declared Invest 90L quite literally decided to spin a little. NHC is calling for a 60% chance of development in the next 24 hours. Either way, it will be short-lived with no impacts to land. At least there's something to talk about without me dissing this section. :)

A harbinger to come? (Credit: NHC)

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Nice in the Northeast
• Beautiful too in the Southeast
• Tropical moisture feeding into some storms in the Louisiana Gulf
• Cool air moving into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Snow showers in the Great Lakes region with a clipper system
• Mild and dry for the Rockies and the West

WORLD WEATHER

• Typhoon Francisco as expected is weakening and down to a Category 2. Should have relatively minimal impacts for Japan which is good news. Of course, it's wise to be prepared for the worst as each storm is different.
• Meanwhile, Raymond rapidly strengthens into a Category 3 and becomes the first major hurricane this year in the Eastern Pacific. Raymond is churning large swells along the SW Mexican coastline. Raymond should stall until Wednesday, before finally heading west out to sea.
• Back to the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Lekima forms behind its big brother Francisco and is going to be another powerful typhoon.
• The UK had a tornado yesterday: pic.twitter.com/58ExRGlyhX More rain and storms today.
• The New South Wales bushfires continues to run wild. Maybe some relief with rain showers around Sydney but most are holding south. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/australia-bushfires-new-south-wales-declares-state-of-emergency-as-blaze-threatens-sydney-8892509.html

5 day track of Francisco takes it toward Japan as a weakened
tropical storm (Credit: Wunderground)

Raymond lashing Mexico but stays at sea (Credit: CIMSS)

EARTHQUAKES

• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.

SPACE WEATHER

• Sunspots 1875 and 1877 has been developing and do have the magnetic complexity to produce a moderate to strong flare. Have to believe they will pop someday. NOAA seems to be thinking the same by upping M-class flare chances to 25% in the next 24 hours. They will be directly Earth-facing in a few days.
• Awaiting a weak coronal hole stream to arrive today or tomorrow. A brief geomagnetic disturbance is possible, nothing more than that.

Wait and see game... (Credit: SpaceWeather.com)

10/20/2013 Daily Update: Blustery Today, Raymond Impacting SW Mexico, First Snow for Upper Midwest and Great Lakes

Good afternoon everyone!

With the showers last night out of here, we are left with blustery conditions and definitely can feel a chill in the air as well. Regardless, should be a nice day with sunshine.

TODAY: Sunny with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds from the NW at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts over 30 mph possible.

TONIGHT: Clear with lows in the mid 30s. Areas of frost possible. Light winds.

TOMORROW: Sunny with highs in the lower 60s. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

Next chance of rain is Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening then things start to become more interesting. A shot at snow flurries Wednesday night? Quite possible with much cooler air arriving from Canada Wednesday. Stay tuned for more!

ATLANTIC TROPICS

• Is the definition of being extinct. May have to dissolve this section soon...

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Breezy day across the Northeast with rain showers up in Northern New England
• A few storms crossing Florida otherwise pleasant weather in the Southeast and South
• Parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes are experiencing their first taste of snow this season. First lake effect snows of the season expected. Any accumulations remain light. Cooler winds behind it.
• Dry and mild for the Northwest

Light snow falling north of Minneapolis. Signs of winter!
(Credit: GREarth)

WORLD WEATHER

• Been tracking Francisco for a couple of days and is starting to lose its edge a little bit, down to a Category 4. Further weakening is forecasted before hitting Japan as a much-lesser version of the mighty and great Super Typhoon Francisco. Still cause problems though.
• We got two followers behind Francisco, declared TD 27 and TD 28. TD 28 further away from Francisco could become a typhoon while TD 27 is already encroaching cold waters.
• Tropical Storm Raymond has developed off the SW coast of Mexico with sustained wind speeds of 50 mph. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Lazaro Cardenos to Acapulco, Mexico. Raymond will slowly approach the Mexican coast and could become a hurricane before heading out to sea by mid-week. Heavy rainfall, flooding, landslides are imminent.
• Showers and storms continue for Western Europe with snow across the north.
• Shower and storm threat extending from southern Western Australia to Victoria along a trough.

The storms in the Western Pacific with
their respective labels. (Credit: CIMSS)

Raymond forms off the coast of SW Mexico and is a
heavy flooding threat. Tropical Storm Warnings in yellow
(Credit: CIMSS)

EARTHQUAKES

• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.

SPACE WEATHER

• Many sunspots on the visible disk but the problem is none are producing. Sunspots 1875 and 1877 are the most likely to pull the trigger if they finally do. M-class flare chances down to 15% in the next 24 hours.

The sun is loaded up but not firing.
(Credit: SpaceWeather.com)

10/19/2013 Daily Update: Gorgeous Fall Afternoon, Francisco Becomes a Category 5, 6.5 Baja California Earthquake

Good afternoon everyone!

A gorgeous fall afternoon is on tap and really hard to beat the stretch of days we've been having. A few showers possible with a cold front tonight but should be out of here by Sunday morning. Sunday features sunny skies and a breeze out of the west. Overall, not a bad weekend for outdoor plans. Enjoy!

TODAY: Mostly sunny with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Winds from the S at 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: A chance of a shower otherwise mostly cloudy with lows in the lower to mid 40s. Winds from the S at 5 mph.

TOMORROW: Sunny with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Winds from the W at 5 to 15 mph.

A substantial cooldown looks to arrive around Wednesday so these couple of days may be our last shot at 60s for the foreseeable future.

ATLANTIC TROPICS

• Nothing meaningful here.

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Nice in the Northeast. Showers along a cold front out in the Great Lakes that will arrive in New England tonight.
• Humid with showers in the Southeast
• Cooler but dry across the South
• Milder air for the Rockies and the West

WORLD WEATHER

• Francisco is now Super Typhoon Francisco and a Category 5 typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and gusting near 200 mph! By early next week, higher shear and cooler waters takes over and Francisco should finally start to weaken under the unfavorable environment. It's almost certain Japan takes a beating from the storm but where, when and how strong is yet to be determined as there is high uncertainty on the track.
• A low pressure system is bringing showers and storms for Western Europe while snow continues across the north
• Showers for southern parts of Western Australia. Rain staying south from the New South Wales wildfires.

That eye is something special. (Credit: CIMSS)

EARTHQUAKES

• A strong 6.5 earthquake centered in the Gulf of California near Baja California. No reports of damage or causalities so far. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000khbc#summary

SPACE WEATHER

• Departing sunspot 1861 continues to be a threat for M-class flares. The newcomers aren't very active but sunspot 1875 is somewhat promising but not producing so far. 1877 is large but magnetically simple.

(Credit: SpaceWeather.com)

10/18/2013 Daily Update: Warm and Breezy Friday, Wildfires Ravaging Australia, Penumbral Lunar Eclipse Tonight

Good morning everyone and Happy Friday!

Showers passed overnight and setting the stage for a warm, sunny day, breezy at times with the gusty westerly winds.

TODAY: Sunny with highs near 70. Winds from the W at 5 to 15 mph, with gusts over 20 mph.

TONIGHT: Clear with lows in the lower 40s. Calm winds.

TOMORROW: Partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the mid 60s. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

Another round of showers anticipated for Saturday night, after that a cool surge works its way in for the start of next week.

ATLANTIC TROPICS

• Nope, nothing. While the U.S. government shutdown has presumably ended, the shutdown in the tropics remains.

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Breezy but sunny for the Northeast. A few showers for northern areas.
• Showers passing through the Southeast, warm conditions in place for Florida
• Cooler air infiltrating the Midwest and South
• Dry and mild for the West

WORLD WEATHER

• Typhoon Francisco is a Category 4 beast with sustained winds up to 145 mph, gusting at 170 mph. It is located just west of Guam, where they felt the impacts on the eastern side of it yesterday. Francisco is a long-range threat for Japan, arrival time is mid-week or so. Good news though, is it is supposed to weaken over cooler waters and higher shear by the time it reaches there. Nonetheless, it follows at the heels of Wipha and going to cause headaches one more time.
• More rain approaching the U.K., snow and wind for northern Europe.
• Almost 100 wildfires are burning in New South Wales, Australia destroying dozens of homes, forcing hundreds of evacuations, and killing one person. This is early for wildfire season in Australia where usually they start around December when summer begins. Prayers out for those affected. You can monitor the situation via the links provided. (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-17/live-blog3a-nsw-bushfire-emergency/5028762 and http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/dsp_content.cfm?cat_id=683).
• Storms for Northwest Australia and a few for Queensland as well.

A picture is worth a 1000 words. Beautiful. (Credit: CIMSS)

Picture of the wildfires in New South Wales encroaching Sydney
(Credit: NASA http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82189&eocn=home&eoci=iotd_image)

EARTHQUAKES

• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.

SPACE WEATHER

• Tonight is the penumbral lunar eclipse show of the Hunter's Moon. The faint eclipse will peak at 7:50 pm EDT and clear skies are optimal conditions for viewing. The best seat of the house is in Africa, Europe, and Asia. See the map for details on locations.
• Sunspot 1861 produced a M1.2-class solar flare yesterday at 15:41 UTC. The CME appears faint and not Earth-directed anyways. The newcomers are magnetically stable so far, the lone source for moderate M-class flares being 1861 which is disappearing from the Earth-facing visible disk soon. M-class flare chances are at 30% in the next 24 hours.

Map of the penumbral lunar eclipse tonight
(http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/OH/OHfigures/OH2013-Fig04.pdf)

1861 about to disappear from view, the most likely area
to watch for a moderate flare. (Credit: SpaceWeather.com)

10/17/2013 Daily Update: Gorgeous and Mild Thursday, Few Showers Tonight, Typhoon Francisco Quickly Develops

Good afternoon everyone!

Should stay dry during the day, chance of showers arriving late Thursday night til Friday morning. These clear quickly and we can look forward to a sunny Friday!

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Relatively mild with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Winds from the W at 5 mph.

TONIGHT: Chance of showers with lows in the lower 50s. Winds from the S at 5 mph.

TOMORROW: Increasing sunshine during the day with highs in the mid to upper 60s. A bit breezy with winds from the NW at 5 to 15 mph.

Perhaps another chance of a shower this weekend. Also, a cooldown is in store so better soak up the heat while it lasts!

ATLANTIC TROPICS

• Same old story...

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Showers in the upper Midwest begins to advance toward the Northeast tonight
• Scattered storms along the Gulf and Southeast today
• A big high in the Midwest and South bringing dry, sunny weather
• Cooler air from Canada filtering in for the Rockies and Northern Plains
• Nice, dry in the Northwest, West Coast

WORLD WEATHER

• Typhoon Francisco quickly developed into a Category 2 storm with sustained winds near 100 mph. Should further strengthen with a favorable environment and once again, Japan is in the line of fire.
• Snow warnings in place for northern Europe while gusty showers south
• Storms headed for New Zealand

Latest Typhoon Francisco in what has been an active
October in the Western Pacific (Credit: Wunderground)

EARTHQUAKES

• No deaths or damages reported from the 7.1 earthquake in Papua New Guinea yesterday.
• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.

SPACE WEATHER

• Sunspot 1861 produced a few C-class flares but is turning away from Earth. 1865 appears stable. New sunspots turning in are weak and no immediate concerns for a strong flare. Geomagnetic activity is waning.

Despite sun peppered with spots, no real threat
out there. (Credit: SpaceWeather.com)

10/16/2013 Daily Update: Clouds Ahead of Showers Wednesday, Wipha Hits Tokyo Area - Killing 17, Major 7.1 PNG Quake

Good morning everyone!

Clouds are going to stick around today but still a nice day. Arrival time for showers have been delayed to Thursday into Thursday night.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with highs in the mid 60s. Light winds.

TONIGHT: A chance of showers, mostly after midnight. Mostly cloudy with temps in the lower 50s. Light winds.

TOMORROW: A chance of showers otherwise cloudy turning mostly sunny in the afternoon with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Winds from the W at 5 to 10 mph.

The showers marked the arrival of cooler air starting Friday, with winds shifting to the NW bringing in Canadian air. Temps may struggle to reach 60s in areas.

ATLANTIC TROPICS

• Nada.

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Offshore winds from the ocean in the Northeast with showers starting to arrive from the Great Lakes
• Nice weather in the Southeast. Showers and storms for the Gulf Coast and southern Texas along the cold front
• Nice and warmer in the Plains
• Maybe a few showers for the far northern Rockies (Montana especially)
• Has been sunny for the past days in the Northwest

WORLD WEATHER

• Typhoon Wipha ravaged Japan in the Tokyo area, causing damage from flooding and landslides and killing at least 17 people. http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/16/world/asia/japan-typhoon-deaths/
• Tropical Depression Twenty-six forms trailing Wipha to the south and yet another typhoon in the making in the Western Pacific
• Priscilla has weakened into a depression in the Eastern Pacific and should die soon.
• Rain and heavy downpours the main story for Europe
• Storms for Southeast Australia where another bout of severe storms caused power disruptions in Tasmania

EARTHQUAKES

• Within the last hour, a major 7.1 earthquake rocked Papua New Guinea with a moderate depth of 58.3 km. This is a preliminary reading and could change as new data is being evaluated. More details in the next update... http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000kemb#summary
• The death toll has risen to 144 from Tuesday morning's major 7.1 earthquake in Philippines. The Philippines celebrated a holiday Tuesday so it was fortunate some of the crumbled buildings were empty at the time of the quake. http://bigstory.ap.org/article/residents-recount-terror-philippine-quake#overlay-context=article/police-small-time-bomb-caused-myanmar-hotel-blast

SPACE WEATHER

• Sunspot 1865 is crackling with C- and M-class flares and is the source for the potential for a stronger flare. Strongest was a M1.1-class solar flare at 08:40 UTC Tuesday morning.
• New sunspot regions have been declared on the east limb of the sun, another area to watch for activity. This was the area that produced CMEs in the last few days.

The sun is finally finding its groove and looks
more like solar max now. (Credit: SpaceWeather.com)

10/15/2013 Daily Update: Mostly Sunny Tuesday, Deadly 7.1 Philippines Earthquake, Wipha Aims for Tokyo

Good morning everyone!

Hope you enjoyed the long weekend. For today, mostly sunny conditions take hold with temps in the upper 60s.

TODAY: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Winds generally light.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy with lows in the mid 40s. Winds are calm.

TOMORROW: A chance of showers in the afternoon otherwise mostly cloudy with highs in the mid 60s. Winds from the SE at 5 mph.

Showers become more steadier Wednesday night but it shouldn't last long with clearing taking place by Thursday morning.

ATLANTIC TROPICS

• Nothing interesting is going on...

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Dry in the Northeast, a few showers for the coast of Virginia and the Carolinas along a front
• Dry and rather comfortable in the Gulf and Southeast
• Downpours and some heavy rain crossing the Plains now moving toward the Great Lakes. The band of showers and storms extend down to Texas
• Chillier for the Rockies on the back-side of the system
• Pleasant for the Northwest

WORLD WEATHER

• Typhoon Nari made landfall in central Vietnam which caused major damage and claimed 5 lives after killing 13 in the Phillipines. http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/131015/typhoon-nari-kills-five-causes-major-damage-vietnam
• Wipha is about to impact eastern Japan near Tokyo.
• Octave brought heavy rain and gusty winds to Baja California. Weak impact as it was a minimal tropical storm.
• Priscilla, a few hundred miles south of Baja California, is turning west and should wander there with no impacts to land.
• Showers and storms for much of Europe with the low pressure in the English Channel
• Showers and storms for parts of northern Australia and showers for Victoria and Tasmania

Water vapor of Wipha headed for Tokyo (Credit: CIMSS)

EARTHQUAKES

• A 7.1 earthquake struck the Philippines yesterday evening with numerous aftershocks following. Latest numbers have placed the death toll to 93. Structures that stood for centuries were crumbled and many areas were without power. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000kdb4#summary http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57607496/philippines-earthquake-leaves-scores-dead/

SPACE WEATHER

• A CME produced by an M1-class solar flare Saturday hit Earth's magnetic field this morning. It was a weak impact but auroras could still be seen in the arctic regions.
• Sunspot 1865 continues to harbor energy for moderate to strong flares. 30% chance of M-class flares in the next 24 hours.

Sunspot 1865 is the primary active region.
(Credit: SpaceWeather.com)

10/14/2013 Daily Update: Brighter Columbus Day, Nari Approaches Vietnam, Octave Nears Baja California, CA Quake Swarm

Good afternoon everyone!

It's Columbus Day and unlike the past two days, look forward to brighter conditions with temps in the mid 60s.

COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Winds from the SW at 5 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with lows in the mid 40s. Winds are calm.

TOMORROW: Partly to mostly sunny with highs around 70 degrees. Winds from the S at 5 mph.

A few showers maybe late Wednesday, but generally a quiet week with fair skies ahead.

ATLANTIC TROPICS

• Come on, the Patriots and the Red Sox made miraculous comebacks yesterday. Maybe you can be inspired and take a page out of them?

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Dry in the Northeast save a few sprinkles out along the Great Lakes.
• Spotty showers in the Virginias and Carolinas, otherwise warm and dry for the South, Southeast, and the Gulf
• Showers and thunderstorms up and down the Plains today, a few could be severe especially in Kansas and Nebraska
• Dry and cool for the West Coast

WORLD WEATHER

• Nari is about to make landfall in central Vietnam. Nari is a Category 1 typhoon with sustained winds of 85 mph, gusting at 105 mph. Evacuations are in full force and Vietnam is probably used to tropical cyclones by now. Nari killed 13 people in the Philippines last Friday.
• Wipha in the Western Pacific is weakening as it swings toward Japan from cooler waters. Wipha is expected to pass offshore of Tokyo by Tuesday-Wednesday, though the storm should remain relatively weak around borderline typhoon status which means Tokyo will probably experience winds less than typhoon criteria. Heavy rain is the main concern and Fukushima may be impacted by the rains, possibly hindering the clean-up process from the damaged reactors.

• A tornado touched down in Bangladesh associated with #Phailin. pic.twitter.com/7KpTluuiYs
  — Western MA Wx (@WMassWx) October 14, 2013

• While the Atlantic struggles to produce, the Eastern Pacific is outpacing them in the number of storms with the latest, Tropical Storm Priscilla, forming 700 miles south of the Baja California Peninsula. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Octave has prompted Tropical Storm Warnings along the coast of Baja California, bringing heavy rains and winds today.
• Stubborn low spinning near the English Channel is dumping rain over the UK, France, and areas around them.
• A few showers and storms invading NE Australia and we see a few showers over Tasmania again.

Nari approaching central Vietnam (Credit: CIMSS)

Tiny Octave set to impact Baja California (Credit: CIMSS)

EARTHQUAKES

• An earthquake swarm is occurring on the southern end of the San Andreas fault. No need to be alarmed as they do occur from time to time. An earthquake swarm don't always precede a large earthquake but always be prepared regardless.
• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.

An earthquake swarm in Southern California that started last night.
Generally in the 2-point range, some higher in the 3s. Highest registered
was a 3.6 this morning. (Credit: USGS)

SPACE WEATHER

• The Earth-directed CME from Saturday night is expected to buffer Earth's magnetosphere tomorrow or Wednesday. Analysis shows speeds are weak though so most likely, only a minor event with auroras confined in the poles.
• A C8.0-solar flare (near M-class range) from Sunspot 1865 was detected this morning at 13:15 UTC. Sunspots 1861 and 1865 are the most unstable and they are both to turn away from Earth-facing position. M-class flare chances are at 40% and X-class flare chances are 10% in the next 24 hours.
• Solar wind speeds have ramped up to 446.0 km/sec and densities low at 5.9 protons/cm^3 per last update meaning solar wind stream from a coronal hole has reached Earth. Auroras possible in high latitudes.

1865 spit out a C-flare this morning and along with 1861 are
the ones to monitor for activity (Credit: SpaceWeather.com)

10/13/2013 Daily Update: Tale of Two Stories Today, India Avoids Repeat Disaster, M2-class Flare - CME Earth-directed

Good afternoon everyone!

A tale of two stories right now with clear skies over the Berkshires while further east the Pioneer Valley is stuck under mostly cloudy conditions. Ultimately though, the clouds are going to move out and tonight should be clear allowing temps to tumble into the 30s. We recover back into the mid to upper 60s for Columbus Day and I guarantee this one turns out bright. ;)

TODAY: Sunny west in the Berkshires, mostly cloudy with breaks of sun for the valley. Highs in the mid 60s. Winds from the E at 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds and skies turning clear with lows dropping into the mid to upper 30s. Winds becoming calm.

COLUMBUS DAY: Sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Winds from the SW at 5 mph.

The start for the week ahead looks great. Sunny and relatively warm for this time of year, temps around 70. A small bump in the road with showers entering the picture Wednesday night/Thursday but we end the week dry heading into next weekend.

ATLANTIC TROPICS

• Invest 98L is a bummer in a season full of bummers. Yawn...

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Clouds in New England should lead way to sun late afternoon. Few showers in the Mid-Atlantic region.
• Warm in the Gulf Coast and Southeast
• Heavy rain and downpours impacting Texas
• High bringing fair weather for the Midwest and the Plains
• Showers and elevation snow showers in the Rockies
• Dry in the Northwest

WORLD WEATHER

• India managed to avoid another disastrous repeat of the 1999 super-cyclone that killed more than 10,000 people by evacuating millions ahead of Phailin. Most of the fatalities were before the actual landfall as vicious wind and rain swept along the NE Indian coastline. This is a perfect example of how learning from previous disasters can prevent a future repeat down the road. Praise to the Indian government for forcing people to evacuate and they did a great job in handling the situation.
• Typhoon Wipha has quickly strengthened into a Category 4 typhoon packing winds in excess of 130 mph, gusting at 160 mph. Wipha is expected to turn north toward Japan and could be near the Tokyo area by mid-week. Have to closely monitor the track in the days ahead.
• Tropical Storm Octave forms in the Eastern Pacific south of the Baja peninsula and will track toward it bringing tropical rains.
• Low pressure over the UK is producing rain for London and the adjoining areas.
• New Zealand is on tap to take the brunt of a storm

Wipha in all its glory on the IR NHC-enhanced satellite image
(Credit: CIMSS)

EARTHQUAKES

• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.

SPACE WEATHER

• Sunspot 1865 blasted an M1.7-class solar flare and has produced a CME aimed at Earth. The CME is progged to reach Earth on Oct. 15-16. Geomagnetic storms will be possible around the timeframe.
• Sunspots 1861 and 1865 are Earth-facing and have the energy to produce a moderate to strong flare today. M-class flare chances are at 40% in the next 24 hours. X-class flare chances are at a decent 15% in the next 24 hours.

NOAA ENLIL Spiral shows a certain CME impact
on the 15th. Possible for a G1 to G2 geomagnetic storm 15th-16th.

Moderate to strong flare threat from 1861 and/or
1865 today (Credit: SpaceWeather.com)

10/12/2013 Daily Update: Stubborn Clouds - Cool Marine Air, Phailin Impacts NE India, Nari Claims 13, 3 M6.0+ Quakes

Good afternoon/evening everyone!

It has been cool and cloudy today much to the dismay of the call for more sun than clouds. This was due to a persistent east wind off the Atlantic bringing in the marine cloud deck to much of New England. Improvements tomorrow as the clouds break apart and Sunday afternoon should be sunny finally. The sun lasts into Columbus Day with temperatures cool but seasonable this time of year in the mid 60s.

• Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin in the Bay of Bengal is making landfall over northeastern India with sustained winds well over 100 mph. Catastrophic flooding and storm surge are imminent and it is a dangerous life-threatening situation there.

Phailin pounds NE India (Credit: CIMSS)

• After making landfall, Nari has claimed 13 lives in the Philippines from falling trees and landslides and is continuing its trek towards Vietnam where yet another tropical cyclone is bearing down on them.
• Wipha strengthens into a typhoon with max sustained winds at 85 mph and gradually moves north directed at Japan by early next week. 
• 3 M6+ earthquakes hit since the last update. 6.3 in New Zealand (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000kbbm#summary), 6.1 in Venezuela (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000kbhi#summary), and a strong 6.4 earthquake struck Greece causing only minor damage, fortunately. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000kbn7#summary
• We continue to watch Sunspots 1861 and 1865 as they are growing and continue to have the potential to unleash a good-sized flare. So far, they haven't show what they are capable of producing yet. M-class flare chances: 40% in the next 24 hours.

1861 and 1865 are capable of a moderate flare
(Credit: SpaceWeather.com)

10/11/2013 Daily Update: Shower-less Friday, Phailin Headed for India, Nari for Philippines, Minor 2.6 NH Earthquake

Good morning everyone and Happy Friday!

The showers predicted for today never came into fruition and I doubt that people mind it at all. For Friday, expect partly sunny skies, temperatures seasonable in the mid to upper 60s.

TODAY: Partly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Winds from the NE at 5 mph.

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds with lows in the lower to mid 40s. Winds from the NE at 5 mph.

TOMORROW: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

It does look like a quiet Columbus Day weekend... temps staying in the 60s and plenty of sun each day. No chances of precipitation in sight for at least until mid-week.

ATLANTIC TROPICS

• Invest 98L is a broad tropical wave southwest of the Cape Verde islands and so far remains disorganized under a moderate to high shear environment and will need some type of boost for it to get going.

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Heavy rain continues for the Mid-Atlantic. Places in Pennsylvania have set daily rainfall records yesterday and much of the same for today.
• Dry and a tad milder in the Northeast
• Warm and dry in the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and South
• Storms across the Northern-eastern plains. Potential for a few strong to severe storms in the eastern Dakotas.
• Cool in the Northwest

WORLD WEATHER

• Strong and dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin out in the Indian Ocean is set to make landfall in eastern India tomorrow. Winds are up to 155 mph and may become a "Super Tropical Cyclone" if it strengthens into a Category 5. Phailin is large and for comparison, is the size of Hurricane Katrina. The hot waters are perfect breeding grounds for Phailin and this almost certainly going to be devastating.
• Meanwhile, Typhoon Nari is nearing the Philippines and it is up to a Category 3 with max sustained winds of 115 mph. Nari is going to bring severe winds, and heavy rain to a place that has already seen flooding from past tropical cyclones.
• Trailing Nari is Tropical Storm Wipha which is expected to swing NE in the next few days, strengthening over open waters and may be a threat to Japan next week.
• Showers and storms across much of Western and Central Europe
• Showers across Tasmania and a few gusty showers in southern parts of Western Australia. Hotter in central and eastern Queensland. 

Dual threats with Phailin on top eyeing India and Nari on the bottom
closing in on the Philippines (Credit: CIMSS)

EARTHQUAKES

• A minor 2.6 earthquake hit central NH last night at 9:07pm EDT. This is predominantly an "active" region for earthquakes in New England. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000kaih#summary
• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.

SPACE WEATHER

• An M1-class flare blasted from the far eastern limb of the sun last night away from Earth and produced a CME. It took place on the side of the sun so no repercussions expected.
• Sunspot 1865 is fairly stable but quite large and along with 1861, is the likely source for additional M-class flares. It's a waiting game.

Watch for 1861 and 1865 (Credit: SpaceWeather.com)

10/10/2013 Daily Update: Clouds and Shower Chances Increasing; Phailin Rapidly Strengthens, Threatens Eastern India

Good afternoon everyone!

Clouds start to fill in due to a stalled coastal storm south of us creeping up north and scattered rain chances spreads into the region this evening lasting into Friday.

TODAY: Cloudy with scattered showers late. Highs in the lower 60s. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Scattered showers with lows in the mid to upper 40s. Winds from the NE at 5 mph.

TOMORROW: Scattered showers with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

The long Columbus Day weekend does look dry, sunny, and seasonable so that's great!

ATLANTIC TROPICS

• Tracking what is Invest 98L SW of the Cape Verde islands. Models aren't enthusiastic at this one and so is the case of this year's tropical season.

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Dry and cloudy in the Northeast with gusty rain showers south in the Mid-Atlantic associated with a stalled low
• Nice weather in the Southeast
• Warm and windy across the South and Midwest
• Rain in the Rockies and Southwest
• Mostly dry in the Northwest, showers in extreme NW areas

WORLD WEATHER

• Tropical Cyclone Phailin in the Indian Ocean rapidly intensified yesterday and now is a Category 3 with maximum winds for 115 mph. Further strengthening is possible today and eastern India is slated to take the full brunt of the cyclone by the weekend. It is a dangerous situation there.
• Typhoon Nari is east of the Phillippines and boasts maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. It is projected to make landfall in the Phillippines Friday evening (Japan Standard Time).
• Narda dissipates in the Eastern Pacific
• Rain over central Europe
• Mostly dry in Australia with the exception of a few showers in New South Wales

IR (NHC enhancement) of Phailin posing a dangerous threat to India
(Credit: CIMSS)

EARTHQUAKES

• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.

SPACE WEATHER

• Things have quieted down since the M-class flare two days ago. Sunspots 1861 and 1865 are the ones that are likely to produce a flare if one were to occur today. M-class flare chances are relatively moderate at 25% in the next 24 hours.
• A coronal hole stream may trigger a minor geomagnetic disturbance when it reaches Earth around the 11th-13th.
• Take a peek at SOHO. A sundiving comet from the Kreutz family can be spotted making its death plunge.

One less comet in the solar system after today... (Credit: SOHO LASCO C3)

Sunspots 1861 and 1865 are the most
active of the bunch (Credit: SpaceWeather.com)