Sunday, October 13, 2013

10/13/2013 Daily Update: Tale of Two Stories Today, India Avoids Repeat Disaster, M2-class Flare - CME Earth-directed

Good afternoon everyone!

A tale of two stories right now with clear skies over the Berkshires while further east the Pioneer Valley is stuck under mostly cloudy conditions. Ultimately though, the clouds are going to move out and tonight should be clear allowing temps to tumble into the 30s. We recover back into the mid to upper 60s for Columbus Day and I guarantee this one turns out bright. ;)

TODAY: Sunny west in the Berkshires, mostly cloudy with breaks of sun for the valley. Highs in the mid 60s. Winds from the E at 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds and skies turning clear with lows dropping into the mid to upper 30s. Winds becoming calm.

COLUMBUS DAY: Sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Winds from the SW at 5 mph.

The start for the week ahead looks great. Sunny and relatively warm for this time of year, temps around 70. A small bump in the road with showers entering the picture Wednesday night/Thursday but we end the week dry heading into next weekend.


ATLANTIC TROPICS

  • Invest 98L is a bummer in a season full of bummers. Yawn...

NATIONAL WEATHER

  • Clouds in New England should lead way to sun late afternoon. Few showers in the Mid-Atlantic region.
  • Warm in the Gulf Coast and Southeast
  • Heavy rain and downpours impacting Texas
  • High bringing fair weather for the Midwest and the Plains
  • Showers and elevation snow showers in the Rockies
  • Dry in the Northwest

WORLD WEATHER

  • India managed to avoid another disastrous repeat of the 1999 super-cyclone that killed more than 10,000 people by evacuating millions ahead of Phailin. Most of the fatalities were before the actual landfall as vicious wind and rain swept along the NE Indian coastline. This is a perfect example of how learning from previous disasters can prevent a future repeat down the road. Praise to the Indian government for forcing people to evacuate and they did a great job in handling the situation.
  • Typhoon Wipha has quickly strengthened into a Category 4 typhoon packing winds in excess of 130 mph, gusting at 160 mph. Wipha is expected to turn north toward Japan and could be near the Tokyo area by mid-week. Have to closely monitor the track in the days ahead.
  • Tropical Storm Octave forms in the Eastern Pacific south of the Baja peninsula and will track toward it bringing tropical rains.
  • Low pressure over the UK is producing rain for London and the adjoining areas.
  • New Zealand is on tap to take the brunt of a storm
Wipha in all its glory on the IR NHC-enhanced satellite image
(Credit: CIMSS)

EARTHQUAKES

  • There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.

SPACE WEATHER

  • Sunspot 1865 blasted an M1.7-class solar flare and has produced a CME aimed at Earth. The CME is progged to reach Earth on Oct. 15-16. Geomagnetic storms will be possible around the timeframe.
  • Sunspots 1861 and 1865 are Earth-facing and have the energy to produce a moderate to strong flare today. M-class flare chances are at 40% in the next 24 hours. X-class flare chances are at a decent 15% in the next 24 hours.
NOAA ENLIL Spiral shows a certain CME impact
on the 15th. Possible for a G1 to G2 geomagnetic storm 15th-16th.
Moderate to strong flare threat from 1861 and/or
1865 today (Credit: SpaceWeather.com)

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