11/19/2013 Daily Update: Decreasing Winds, Late-Season Atlantic Storm, X1 Solar Flare

Good morning everyone!

Short update...

As you can see, it's sunny and breezy today. Also had a few flurries in the Berkshires this morning. Highs in the mid 40s. Winds decrease tonight and tomorrow should be sunny with lighter winds, highs in the lower to mid 40s.

• Another tropical cyclone is hitting eastern India
• EDIT 4:23PM ET: Forgot to mention, late-season Subtropical Storm Melissa has formed out in the middle of the Atlantic with no threat to land.
• An X1 solar flare popped from the sun this morning, on the far western limb which means the flare won't be an Earth-directed hit. M-class flare chances today: 40%. X-class flare chances: 5%

Credit: NOAA

11/18/2013 Daily Update: Morning Showers/Storms Clear, Tornadoes Strike the Midwest, One Last Gasp for the Tropics

Good morning everyone!

Hope you had a great weekend. We're dealing with gusty showers and storms to start the day from the leftover energy associated with the tornado outbreak in the Midwest. Rain should quickly move out of here by lunchtime and we can look forward to sunshine in the afternoon.

TODAY: Morning showers and storms, then clearing in the afternoon. Mild with highs in the lower 60s. Windy with winds from the SW at 10 to 20 mph, gusting up to 40mph in storms. Winds gradually decrease in the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear skies with lows in the lower 30s. Winds from the W at 5 to 15 mph.

TOMORROW: Sunny and much cooler with highs in the lower to mid 40s. Winds from the NW at 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts possible.

• Scenes of destruction in the Midwest with more than 70 tornadoes reported, killing at least 6 and injuring dozens. An EF4 tornado touched down in Washington County, Illinois, destroying homes and leaving a 3-mile wide path of destruction according to the National Weather Service. The severe outbreak delayed the NFL game between the Ravens and the Bears for 2 hours. Incredible and heartbreaking to see the devastation unfold... thoughts and prayers to those affected. http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/18/us/midwest-tornadoes/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
• The U.S. is not the only one dealing with tornadoes - the coast of New South Wales in Australia also had one.

  

  Tornado touches down in New South Wales (Credit: RSOE EDIS)

• It's likely we'll see Melissa named in the Atlantic out in the middle of the ocean.

Credit: NHC

• U.S. - Gusty morning downpours in the Northeast, cooler air working down to the Midwest and the tornado-ravaged regions,  milder for the Rockies, rain chances increasing in the Northwest
• Europe - Low impacting SW Europe and another disturbance producing rain in the English Channel
• Australia - Severe storms exiting the coastlines, but more storms on the way - impacting the interior right now.
• Solar activity is low. No flaring above C-class yesterday. That big sunspot 1899 is ominous but not producing. 1897, 1899, 1900 present threats for M-class flares. M-class flare chances: 60%, X-class chances: 15%.

1897, 1899, 1900 have energy for M-class flares
(Credit: SpaceWeather.com)

11/17/2013 Daily Update: Gusty Showers/Storms Approaching; Severe Outbreak - Chicago, Indy; 7.8 Scotia Sea Quake

Good morning everyone!

A murky, cloudy day for today ahead of showers arriving this evening. It's going to be milder than normal with highs into the mid to upper 50s. Temps won't be dropping much overnight staying around the 50s and winds increasing from the south as a potent cold front pushes east. That cold front will be responsible for severe weather in the lower Great Lakes and Ohio valley regions today (see more under national weather). While we won't see what they are seeing out west, there is the chance for a scattered, gusty storm Monday morning. The front clears out by Monday afternoon and temps drop accordingly by Monday night.

TODAY: A chance of a shower late afternoon, evening hours otherwise cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Rain chances increasing, becoming widespread overnight. Winds increasing as well... from the south at 5 to 15 mph. Mild night with lows in the lower 50s.

TOMORROW: Showers in the morning. There is the chance of an embedded gusty thunderstorm along with the line of showers. Winds from the S at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts under a storm. Clearing in the afternoon. Mild, highs in the lower to mid 60s in the early afternoon before temps start to drop.

Here is the simulated radar from one model output (the WRF) on the progression of showers/storms tomorrow morning. Link from @Ants_SNEweather, a great source for weather updates in Southern New England. If you're on Twitter, I highly recommend following him!

Simulated radar from the WRF at 13Z (8am EST) (Credit: Wright Weather)

Sim radar gives idea how things evolve around & ahead of developing strong low pressure. Thankfully quick movers ! http://t.co/vX8KJ7GNUw
— Anthony Siciliano (@Ants_SNEweather) November 16, 2013

NATIONAL WEATHER

• The big headline news is the dangerous and potent severe outbreak for the lower Great Lakes and Ohio valley. Cities in areas such as Chicago and Indianapolis are in for some nasty weather. A powerful cold front is expected to trigger severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts, gusty heavy downpours and yes, tornadoes. In fact, SPC has issued a PDS (potentially dangerous situation) tornado watch for much of Illinois and surrounding areas this morning. The thinking is discrete supercells develop on the onset before forming into a defined squall line. These supercells will take advantage of the favorable high wind shear, moisture, and instability in place for producing large hail, strong winds, and tornadoes. Once activity becomes squall-like oriented, widespread gusty and damaging winds will be the main threat. Like in any severe weather situation, it's hard to pinpoint a specific location so if you're under a watch, keep aware and have a plan if a tornado warning is issued.

Greatest threat of severe storms and tornadoes (Credit: Accuweather.com)

WORLD WEATHER

• Europe - Low generating showers in SW Europe, another one around the English Channel
• Australia - Showers and severe storms possible for NE Australia

EARTHQUAKES

• A major 7.8 earthquake struck the bottom of the world in the Scotia Sea again. We saw activity building in the days prior including the 6.8 yesterday. Oddly, this earthquake did not produce a tsunami. The Scotia plate is in a remote location and one of the least studied tectonic plates in the world. http://www.decodedscience.com/major-earthquake-m7-8-strikes-scotia-sea-south-atlantic-17-november-2013/39492 http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000l0gq#summary (Read tectonic summary on the bottom. Great insight.)

SPACE WEATHER

• Flaring is on the low side despite a large sunspot in 1899. You would think it would be the most likely source for flaring but in fact that belongs to 1900, which produced a few C-class flares and a low-level M-class flare this morning. 1897 is also a region to be monitored... composed from a unique group of dark cores scattered around the disk. M-class flare chances: 60%. X-class flare chances: 15%.

1899 is huge, but not active. 1897 and 1900 are the
ones to monitor for flaring. (Credit: SolarHam.net)

11/16/2013 Daily Update: Nice and Sunny Saturday, Midwest Severe Outbreak Starts Today, 6.8 Scotia Sea Earthquake

Good morning everyone!

It's a nice and sunny start to the weekend... fairly mild and light winds. Really can't ask for anything more! Though, changes are on the way with showers entering the picture Sunday afternoon/evening from an approaching cold front to the west.

TODAY: Sunny with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Winds from the SW at 5 mph.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds with lows in the mid to upper 30s. Light wind.

TOMORROW: Cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Showers becoming more numerous heading into the evening. Winds from the SE at 5 to 15 mph.

Showers and even some storms could produce heavy rain and localized flooding Monday. It will be mild but unsettled with gusty winds from the south.

ATLANTIC TROPICS

• Well, I guess the Atlantic does not want to die... or is the NHC just bored out of their minds?

Credit: NHC

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Mild in the Northeast
• Strong to severe storms possible along parts of the lower Missouri valley. These storms spread east tomorrow into areas from Chicago and Detroit where they will receive the brunt of the gusty, and potentially damaging thunderstorms.
• Cooler across the Plains
• Snow and wind for the Rockies

Great graphic from AccuWeather.com outlining the areas
under the threat for severe storms today.

WORLD WEATHER

• A weak tropical system is making landfall in Southern India. Flooding threats abound.
• Europe - Low triggering storms in Spain/Portugal. The rest of the continent taking a break. Cold arctic air and snow is incoming for the U.K. early next week. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/cold-blast-snow-united-kingdom/19931796
• Australia - Light showers across the continent. A few storms to the east.

EARTHQUAKES

• The Scotia Sea let loose a 6.8 earthquake following a 6.1 that struck there Wednesday. Aftershocks in the 5-point range are ongoing. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000kznc#summary

SPACE WEATHER

• SpaceWeather has a great gallery of Comet ISON, which has brightened substantially past few days. Check it out: http://t.co/2bObDqzjph
  — Western MA Wx (@WMassWx) November 16, 2013

• Solar wind is increasing from an Earth-facing coronal hole stream. This resulted in the Kp-index rising to a 4 for a brief moment last night. Minor geomagnetic disturbances are possible today.

Solar wind (yellow) increasing, Density (Orange) (Credit: NOAA)

• Sunspots galore, but flaring remains low...only 1900 has been producing low-level M-class flares which is very weak for solar max.

What are they waiting for? (Credit: SolarHam.net)

11/15/2013 Daily Update: Calm and Mostly Sunny Friday

Good morning everyone and Happy Friday!

Should be fairly calm and mostly sunny today. Next shot of rain Sunday-Monday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny with highs in the lower to mid 50s. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly sunny with lows in the lower 30s. Winds becoming calm.

TOMORROW: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid 50s. Winds from the SW at 5 mph.

• U.S. - Milder for the Northeast and the Midwest, showers along the South, Cooler across the West with chances of rain/snow showers in the Northwest.
• Europe - Scattered showers across the continent
• Australia - A few storms across the east
• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 since the last update yesterday.
• Numerous sunspots (9 in total) on the sun but none have yet to produce strong flaring. Activity is currently low at the moment. Experts are estimating a 50% chance of an M-flare in the next 24 hours and 15% for an X-class flare.

We've reached 1900! (Credit: SolarHam.net)

11/14/2013 Daily Update: Back to Normal Weather, Haiyan Death Toll Far Less than Estimated, Comet ISON Brightening...

Good morning guys! I'm back!

Sorry for the lack of an update yesterday...it's been a busy week! Though there's nothing really substantial to report on other than the cold yesterday following our first snowfall in some spots on Tuesday. The chill departs today and we are back to typical mid-November weather. Temps into the 50s this afternoon with plenty of sun. Winds from the W and SW are responsible for the change. Similar day tomorrow, maybe  a few degrees warmer...no showers expected up until Sunday. Enjoy your day!

• U.S. - Warming up for the Northeast and also warmth surging into the Great Lakes from the South, Cooler across the Southeast, Rockies, Northern Plains, and the Northwest. Mainly quiet weather throughout the nation today... not the case this weekend as we are watching a late-season severe weather potential in the Mississippi to Ohio valley. Stay tuned.
• Europe - Rainfall for Western Europe...doesn't want to stop, does it?
• Australia - Northern Queensland may see some gusty storms, areas of showers in northern and western Australia
• A major hailstorm hit Swaziland which caused panic among motorists. The area was also hit by a hailstorm two weeks ago.

(Credit: RSOE EDIS)

• The death toll from Super Typhoon Haiyan may be less than initially feared. The final count is likely to be around 2,500; not the widely speculated number of 10,000 (shame, shame, shame - news media outlets and myself! Shouldn't have trusted them but I really thought so! Ugh, I hate being wrong.) Nonetheless, it's still a tragedy and people need help there.
• 2 M6+ earthquakes to note:
• 11/12/2013 7:03 UTC - M6.6 - 172km S of Ust'-Kamchatsk Staryy, Russia http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000kw1x#summary
• 11/13/2013 23:45 UTC - M6.1 - Scotia Sea (weird place to have a large earthquake, it's so close to Antarctica...) http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000kxhr#summary
• Disappointing in the space weather department. A CME did jolt Earth's magnetosphere yesterday but it was very weak and really didn't even register on the Kp index. That's like expecting 6" of snow to fall the next day but failing to receive a single snowflake. Yeah. Anyways, more spots coming in on the sun... so far been quiet but could change with a single blast.
• As you may have heard, Comet ISON is approaching the sun in the vicinity of Earth right now and could put on a show around December. News medias were quick in dubbing it the "Comet of the Century" which is total exaggeration given the uncertainly whether it can survive the trip to the sun and stay intact. Though it appears the comet has brightened significantly in the past 24-48 hours and is "outbursting". If the trend continues, the comet may be viewable with the naked eye soon. We shall see what happens.

Sunspot 1899 is a beast but tame as of now... (Credit: SolarHam.net)

11/12/2013 Daily Update: Snow

Good afternoon!

Quick update here... parts of the area received their first snowfall of the season especially across the western slope of the Berkshires and along Route 2. The rain and snow showers have departed but the cold is here to stay for the next two days. Temps staying in the 30s today and tomorrow so bundle up!

11/11/2013 Daily Update: Some Snow Showers Incoming, Haiyan Claims More Lives, Sun Quiet for Solar Maximum

Good evening everyone and Happy Veterans Day!

Today featured sunny skies but clouds are on the increase. A cold front moves through tonight bringing the chance for rain and also snow showers along with breezy winds from the NW. Snow showers could reduce visibility in spots, providing a tricky morning commute. Wouldn't be surprised if some spots wake up to a dusting or coating on the ground. Could shape up to be the first snow for many. Tomorrow will be chilly following the cold front passage, allowing cold, arctic air from Canada to spread into New England.

VETERANS DAY: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds in the evening. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Winds from the W at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: A chance of rain and snow showers. Lows dropping into the mid to upper 20s. Gusty winds from the NW.

TOMORROW: Cooler, with highs only reaching the upper 30s. Generally sunny. Windy with NW winds at 10 to 20 mph, gusting to 30.

Current radar showing light snow spreading from Iowa into the Great Lakes. This is the system that moves here tonight pic.twitter.com/3FupXjO2Kb
— Western MA Wx (@WMassWx) November 11, 2013

Started a new, fun weather game that sort of resembles fantasy football in which selected cities in the Northeast collect points based on ground observations and compete head-to-head against each other to determine who really has the most extreme weather in the Northeast. The preseason has gotten started and the 1st inaugural season begins on December 1st. Check it out!! http://nexwl.blogspot.com/ Also follow @NEXWL for up to the minute developments!

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Snow showers moving across the Great Lakes into the Northeast along with a trailing cold front
• Pleasant and seasonable in the South and Southeast
• Colder air moving into Northern U.S. with snow showers in the Rockies

WORLD WEATHER

• Haiyan impacted Vietnam and China as a weakened form but took 13 more lives, in addition to the thousands in the Philippines. Haiyan has moved inland into Southern China and will finally be out of here for good. Continued thoughts and prayers to the Philippines. http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/11/21400489-weakening-haiyan-continues-north-to-china-and-vietnam-killing-more
• Scattered rain showers and storms for Europe
• Showers and storms affecting SE Australia

EARTHQUAKES

• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 since the last update yesterday.

SPACE WEATHER

• Had some minor geomagnetic disturbances with the Kp index rising to 4 in response to perturbations in solar wind and density. 60% of an M-class flare and 30% for an X-class flare today...most likely from Sunspot 1890. Awaiting the CME arrival around Wednesday. Even though activity has ramped up recently, the solar cycle is still nothing close to what we should see during solar maximum. Interesting article on the lack of sunspots and erratic behaviors of the sun... http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304672404579183940409194498

Credit: SolarHam.net

11/10/2013 Daily Update: Clearing Out in Time Before Sunset, Haiyan Death Toll Rises to 10k, Possible CME Mid-Week

Good afternoon everyone!

It's a breezy and cloudy day to start with rain showers around, though starting to clear and blue skies appearing in time before sunset in less than 2 hours.

TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny with highs in the lower 50s. Winds from the W at 5 to 15 mph, gusting to 30 mph.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with lows in the lower to mid 30s. Winds from the W at 5 to 15 mph, gusting to 30 mph.

VETERANS DAY: Partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Wind from the W at 5 to 10 mph.

Perhaps a few passing snow showers Monday night from a cold front. Cold, arctic air on the move for this week.

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Snow showers in Northern New England last night, accumulating snow in some towns.
• Nice, pleasant weather in the South and Southeast
• Cold, arctic air starting to plunge into the Upper Midwest
• Mild for the West Coast, clearing out in the Northwest

WORLD WEATHER

• There is no accurate number but officials are saying that as many as 10,000 have perished after one of the strongest typhoon in recorded history, devastated the Philippines. Damage is equivalent to a hundred-mile wide EF4-tornado. Pictures coming out on social media are depressing but certainly tells how real the dire situation is. Haiyan is headed for Vietnam and China as a weakened Category 1 typhoon and in a few days should finally dissipate. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/11/09/typhoon-haiyan-philippines-vietnam/3483099/
• The U.K. experienced flooding yesterday and the storm system now moving toward the south affecting the Mediterranean.
• A line of rain stretched from NE Australia to the South Island of New Zealand.

What's left of Haiyan crossing into Vietnam and China (Credit: CIMSS)

EARTHQUAKES

• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 since the last update yesterday.

SPACE WEATHER

• We had an X1-flare this morning from Sunspot 1890 which produced a CME that could be headed for Earth. More details to come but the CME looks faint since the flare was another sharp, impulsive spike. NASA ENLIL do show a direct hit early on the 13th so a geomagnetic storm is possible. We shall see.
• Other regions are stable. Two sunspots and a possible region on the eastern limb turning in aren't doing much but at least the potential is there. M-class flare chances in the next 24 hours: 50%. X-class flare chances: 20%.

NASA ENLIL shows a direct hit by the CME produced by the
X-class flare (Credit: NASA)

1890 popped an X-class flare, 2 sunspots taking its place with
another region to the north that should be numbered soon (Credit: SolarHam.net)

11/9/2013 Daily Update: Good Start to Veterans Day Weekend, Haiyan Death Toll Rises

Good morning everyone!

A quiet, autumn day to start Veterans Day Weekend. Winds increase tomorrow... low pressure could produce snow showers across Northern New England. Not expecting much in Southern New England besides a shower or two.

TODAY: Partly sunny with highs in the mid 40s. Winds from the SW at 5 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with lows in the mid 30s. Winds from the S at 5 mph.

TOMORROW: Partly sunny, perhaps a spot shower. Highs in the low 50s. Breezy with winds from the W at 5 to 15 mph, gusting over 30 mph.

SNE SNOWFALL CONTEST

• The contest has officially started! Three towns in Western MA had accumulating snowfall yesterday morning. Check the current results on the left panels.

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Mostly quiet across the nation. Low pressure in the Great Lakes are producing rain and snow showers and a few showers for the Northwest otherwise not much else is going on.
• Milder air in the south, cooler across the north and the Midwest

WORLD WEATHER

• As feared, the death toll has risen... Super Typhoon Haiyan has claimed more than 100 lives in the Philippines. News is only going to get worse. Dead bodies could be seen lying outside in the open. Awful.
• Haiyan is expected to hit Vietnam on Sunday. It is weakening though still a modest Category 3 storm that can pack a punch.
• A short-lived tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea formed and it is headed for Oman.
• Breaks in the action for Europe but showers and storms continue to linger especially in the U.K.
• A few showers/storms in northern and eastern Australia, otherwise mostly dry.

Haiyan - the storm that will go down as one of the strongest
in recorded history (Credit: CIMSS)

EARTHQUAKES

• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 since the last update yesterday.

SPACE WEATHER

• The solar wind has ramped up to 500-600 km/sec signaling an arrival of a CME. High latitudes be alert for auroras.
• Flaring has calmed down following the latest X-flare but still plenty of potential with 1890 in an Earth-facing position. Also, a new sunspot, 1893, can be seen on the eastern limb and does appear like it could do something. Chances of an M-class flare in the next 24 hours: 60%. X-class flares: 30%.

Credit: SpaceWeather.com

11/8/2013 Daily Update: A Few Morning Lake-Effect Snow Showers, Haiyan Slams the Philippines - Strongest on Record!

Good morning everyone and Happy Friday!

Contending with a few lake-effect snow flurries out there that could leave a dusting in spots. Nothing substantial but it's a nice sight to see for snow lovers! After the clouds clear, mostly sunny skies are expected today with a chilly breeze from the NW. Highs will be in the mid 40s.

• Astonishing display of power from Super Typhoon Haiyan which made landfall over the Phillippines as quite possibly the strongest tropical cyclones EVER, at least in the satellite age. One-minute maximum sustained winds reached 195 mph, which is the highest in recorded history. Haiyan is being compared to Super Typhoon Tip, for good reason. Preliminary reports only show 3 deaths but the death toll will certainly rise and keep in mind, communication is cut off making it difficult to gather news on the current situation. The Philippines were struck by a strong earthquake last month and now to have another disaster unfolding, is despicable. Also, they are reeling from the effects of Typhoon Bopha last December, which also brought devastation. All we can do is pray for the Philippines and hope for the best. http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/08/world/asia/philippines-typhoon-haiyan/?hpt=hp_t1

Haiyan has passed over the Philippines but the damage has been done.
Next stop: Vietnam... (Credit: CIMSS)

• U.S. - A few lake effect snow flurries in the Northeast; cool across the Southeast while warmer air surging from the south for the South and the Midwest; a few showers for the Upper Plains and the Northwest
• Europe - Same story, rain rain rain...
• Australia - Showers exiting eastern Australia, high pressure keeping the interior generally dry.
• The Oklahoma earthquake swarm continues; There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 since the last update yesterday.
• An X1-class flare blasted from the Sun last night from, you name it, Sunspot 1890. Again, like last time, it was very impulsive and short in duration... a strong CME is not likely but it did deliver one which could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field. A moderate to strong flare threat remains for Sunspot 1890. NOAA estimates over the next 24 hours: M-class flare - 60%. X-class flare: 20%.

Big sunspot 1890 pointing toward Earth, but so far has only
produced very brief flares, decreasing Earth-related effects.

NOTE: Today may be the first accumulating snow of the season in Southern New England. Worthington, MA checked in with 0.1" this morning. Planning on going through data and compiling a table this weekend!

11/7/2013 Daily Update: Rainy But Mild Today, Super Typhoon Haiyan Bears Down on the Philippines

Good morning everyone!

It is a mild morning but rain showers are nearby and about to arrive from the west. Temperatures should not stray too much from this morning's readings... we're currently in the mid 50s, even reaching 60 in spots. Winds won't be too bad...could gust past 30 mph at times but nothing we can't handle. What's driving the warm air up is the southerly wind from the counter-clockwise drive of a low situated in Quebec. Once the low exits and the attending cold front passes, we're back to the cool side for Friday.

• The big headline story is Super Typhoon Haiyan set to impact the Philippines. It truly fits the definition of a monster storm... winds clocking at 175 mph, gusting over 200 mph! Wow. It is a disaster waiting to happen... one can only hope it won't be as bad as it seems like India last month, for example.

One word: Yikes... (Credit: CIMSS)

• U.S. - rain in the Northeast and warm; cooler air moving into the Plains; the Northwest is contending with a gusty coastal storm with rain and snow
• Europe - Rainy weather continues for Western Europe, though less widespread than previous days
• Australia - A severe storm struck Auckland, New Zealand. Rain entering Southeast Australia which is good news for areas stricken by bushfires there. Relief is on the way.
• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 since the last update yesterday.
• The Kp Index rose to 4 this morning from a brief solar wind and density uptick. Large sunspot 1890 is becoming more directly-facing Earth and the possibility of M-class flares today is 45%, X-class flares at 10%.

Sunspot 1890 harbors energy for an M- or X-class
flare (Credit: SpaceWeather.com)

• NOTE: Planning on making a table listing every town or city and their totals for the SNE Snowfall Contest. This will make viewing data more easily accessible and readable, and also makes it easier to see how well a certain location is doing among other locales. And I hear a storm is brewing for next week?.....

11/6/2013 Daily Update: Gusty Showers On the Way, Haiyan Upgraded to Super Typhoon, X3 Flare Prognosis

Good morning everyone!

Today should be milder with temps climbing into the mid 50s. Though winds will pick up from the south and a round of showers arrive tonight and tomorrow. The cold front is going to bring widespread showers and gusts reaching 40 mph are possible but the majority should stay under advisory levels and it won't be as windy as last Friday's storm. The rain clears by Thursday evening and back to the chilly side for Friday.

• A big plume of rain and storms along a cold front stretching from the Great Lakes to Texas is trekking east.
• Haiyan in the Western Pacific has been upgraded to a Super Typhoon with max winds of 155 mph, gusting at 190 mph, and aiming straight at the Philippines. A serious storm looks inevitable... I hope they are all prepared to ride it out.

Haiyan is a powerful typhoon that needs to be taken seriously
(Credit: CIMSS)

• A weak tropical depression is hitting Vietnam.
• Continued rain shower activity for Europe
• Storms for southern Australia
• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 since the last update yesterday.
• Sunspot 1890 unleashed a powerful X3.3-class solar flare which is the strongest since March of 2012 and ranks 3rd largest in this solar cycle. No real affects with this one... the flare was very impulsive and short in duration. A small CME was confirmed but most, if not all, stays south of Earth and it was weak anyways. Sunspot 1890 will need to be watched for additional flaring, becoming Earth-facing in the next couple days. A new sunspot group may be forming on the sun's eastern limb and on the central disk.

Sunspot 1890 produced a X3.3-class flare as shown on the
Xray flux (Credit: NOAA)

Two new sunspot groups may be forming. (Credit: SolarHam.net)

11/5/2013 Daily Update: Calm Autumn Day, Quarry Blast Triggers Quake Near Chicago, Kepler - "Many Earth-like Planets"

Good morning everyone!

A calm and cool autumn afternoon today with rich, blue skies. Temps will be in the mid 40s with a south wind at 5 to 10 mph. A few clouds move in for tonight, so it won't be as cold as last night, with a low in the lower 30s.

• A storm system is moving through the Midwest bringing snow to the Upper Plains, rain and storms in the southern edge of the low. Winter Weather Advisories are in place from Wisconsin to Nebraska.
• A tropical storm dropped a tornado in the Philippines. The storm has left but it is not over. The Philippines are on deck to take a hit from Typhoon Haiyan, who is strengthening and could become a super typhoon soon.
• A strange occurrence yesterday. A quarry blast triggered a 3.2 earthquake outside of Chicago. Items fell off shelves and one witness said "it felt like a bomb went off". The company has not comment on the event. http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-11-04/news/chi-police-tremors-in-western-suburbs-from-quarry-blast-20131104_1_quarry-blast-hanson-material-service-u-s-geological-survey Earthquake info: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000ksfx#summary
• A 3.8 earthquake shook the OKC area. An earthquake swarm started in the last few days and they have been constantly hit by minor rumbles. The 3.8 was the strongest of them all. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000ksnp#summary
• Rain and storms continuing for Europe, spreading into the Mediterranean.
• NASA revealed in a conference that there could potentially be billions of Earth-like habitable planets in the Milky Way galaxy, obtained from the latest Kepler data. The ingredients of life could be more abundant than we previously thought. More details: http://www.nasa.gov/content/nasa-kepler-results-usher-in-a-new-era-of-astronomy/#.UnkXhfnB3xp
• One of the largest sunspot in the solar cycle, Sunspot 1890, released a M2-flare this morning. This could be a sign to come for more flaring. 1890 has the complexity necessary for strong flares.

1890 is large and has energy to release
a strong flare. (Credit: SpaceWeather.com)

11/4/2013 Daily Update: Freezing Morning, Haiyan Poses Threat to Philippines Late Week

Good morning everyone!

A very cold start with temps bottoming out in the teens and 20s. Not much better in the afternoon... it's a jacket-type day.

TODAY: Sunny with highs in the lower to mid 40s. Winds from the N at 5 mph.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with lows in the lower to mid 20s. Light winds.

TOMORROW: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Winds from the S at 5 mph.

• Chilly rain showers in the Upper Plains along a cold front. Also rain in Texas fueled by tropical moisture from Sonia.
• Sonia in the Eastern Pacific made landfall in Western Mexico
• Krosa is being ripped apart in the Western Pacific
• A tropical depression is currently soaking the Philippines
• Tropical Storm Haiyan forms well east of the Philippines but that will give it time to strengthen into a potentially strong typhoon by late week.
• Western Europe is being soaked with rain, snow across the north.
• Aussie has a few showers south; heavy rain/storms impacting New Zealand.
• Space weather is steady, the sunspots moving away are weakening, but the new sunspot group, enumerated 1890, is large and could be a source for M-class flares. Otherwise, sunspots are mostly quiet.

Tropical Storm Haiyan - the latest threat in a slew of
Wpac tropical cyclones (Credit: Wunderground)

Sunspot 1890 is the primary region to watch... (Credit: SolarHam.net)

Yes, the rain keeps on falling in Europe (Credit: WeatherOnline)

11/3/2013 Daily Update: Much Colder Today, Sonia Forms and Threatens Western Mexico

Good morning everyone!

Going to be cool and breezy today. A very cold night in store... some may actually get down into the teens!

TODAY: Mostly sunny with highs in the lower to mid 40s. Winds from the N at 10 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT: Clear skies and cold, lows in the upper teens to lower 20s. Winds from the N at 5 mph.

TOMORROW: Sunny with highs in the mid 40s. Winds from the N at 5 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Morning snow flurries for a few parts of the Northeast today, colder
• Cool and less humid in the Southeast
• Milder air surging into the South and the Midwest
• The Northwest and the upper Rockies are dealing with a storm system boasting mostly rain showers but also snow for the mountains.

WORLD WEATHER

• Tropical Storm Sonia forms off the west coast of Mexico, bringing the potential for more flooding rains there
• Typhoon Krosa weakens to a Category 1 and aiming SW for Vietnam
• The storm chains keep on forming in the Western Pacific; two new depressions having been declared.
• Rain for Western Europe
• Few showers in Western Europe. Showers and storms toward New Zealand.

Western coast of Mexico nailed again... (Credit: CIMSS)

The WPac doesn't know how to sleep like the Atlantic...
two more depressions popped. (Credit: CIMSS)

EARTHQUAKES

• A M6.2 earthquake shook Tonga: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000krlz#summary
• Followed by a M6.0 off the coast of the Philippines: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000ks1g#summary

SPACE WEATHER

• Had a M5 solar flare from Sunspot 1884 which has strengthened and is now regarded as a threat for M-class or X-class flares. 1887 is developing also. 1890 in the SE limb is a monster...going to be interesting to see what it does when it rotates into Earth's view.
• NASA ENLIL is showing a glancing CME hitting Earth mid-week.

Credit: NASA ENLIL

Sunspot 1890 is interesting... recent far side blasts
may signal increasing activity in the near future
(Credit: SpaceWeather.com)

11/2/2013 Daily Update: Mild November Day, East Coast Partial Solar Eclipse Tomorrow Morning, OK Earthquake Swarm

Good afternoon everyone!

After a wild, windy day yesterday, we are awarded with a mild, November day with plenty of sunshine. A cold front along a trough pushes through tonight with a slight of showers but moisture should be scarce. Much cooler for Sunday.

TODAY: Partly sunny with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: A slight chance of showers, perhaps a few snow showers in higher elevations. Otherwise mostly cloudy with lows in the mid 30s. Winds from the N at 5 to 10 mph.

TOMORROW: Much cooler. Partly sunny with highs in the mid 40s. Breezy, with winds from the N at 5 to 15 mph, with gusts near 30 mph possible.

A Gentle Reminder: Daylight Saving Time ends on November 3rd at 2:00 AM. Turn your clocks back 1 hour before heading to bed tonight.

SNE SNOWFALL CONTEST UPDATE

• It's been a typical first half of autumn with no accumulations from any stations so far. A few towns saw snow flurries early this week but it didn't amount to much.

NATIONAL WEATHER

• A few showers crossing the Northeast today
• Dry and comfortable for the Southeast, a few showers/storms for Florida
• High bringing fair weather in the middle portion of the country
• A coastal storm is impacting the Northwest bringing strong gusts and heavy rain.

WORLD WEATHER

• Typhoon Krosa is heading straight for Vietnam, though weakening in the process.
• No stopping the rain in the U.K. Western Europe is getting drenched by another system.
• A few showers for southern parts of Australia, another in northern Western Australia

EARTHQUAKES

• Oklahoma is experiencing an earthquake swarm this morning. Four earthquakes registered M2.5 or greater. Strongest was a M3.7 near Edmond.
• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.

This morning's Oklahoma earthquake swarm (Credit: USGS)

SPACE WEATHER

• A partial solar eclipse will unfold at sunrise tomorrow morning for much of the East Coast as far west as eastern Ohio down to Georgia. Look to the east between 6:30 to 7:00am EST. A piece of the sun will be missing. However, clouds may hinder viewing in the Northeast so it's all dependent on the skies. There's hope though that clouds may clear just enough for viewing.
• This eclipse is a rare and special type, a hybrid solar eclipse... it starts out partial before becoming a total solar eclipse along a narrow path. Only about 5% of eclipses are hybrids in over 10,000 documented eclipses spanning 5,000+ years. The greatest totality will be seen primarily in Africa during the afternoon hours local time. Below is a map showing the eclipse can be seen and links for additional info: http://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/get-ready-hybrid-solar-eclipse-on-november-3 http://www.universetoday.com/105651/rare-hybrid-solar-eclipse-on-november-3-2013-how-to-see-it/
• Sunspot 1884 produced a M6-class solar flare yesterday. No CME was detected from it though. A few far-side blasts were observed, on the other side of the sun away from Earth's view. Despite recent surge of flaring, no geomagnetic storms have been observed. These Earth-facing spots are the ones to watch today.

1884 has energy for an M-flare (Credit:
SpaceWeather.com)

Map of the eclipse from earthsky.org via skyandtelescope.com

11/1/2013 Daily Update: Windy Accompanied by Showers Today, 2 6-pointer Earthquakes Hit Taiwan and Chile

Good morning everyone and Happy Friday and Happy November!

Wind Advisories have been issued for gusty conditions due to a powerful system with a low centered in Southeast Canada. Gusts could reach as high as 50 mph. Also, some light showers in the area this morning with a few downpours possible later. The winds and showers gradually subside into the evening making for a wonderful and mild Saturday after the front passes with less wind.

TODAY: Showers with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Winds from the SW at 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Accumulations in the low range.

TONIGHT: Winds die down, partly cloudy with lows in the mid 40s. Winds becoming light.

TOMORROW: Mostly sunny with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Winds from the W at 5 to 15 mph.

• Gusty showers and storms are impacting the Northeast today. Minor damage and power outages are possible from the high winds reaching over 50 mph.
• Typhoon Krosa, after making landfall in the Phillipines, is tracking for Vietnam.

More headed your direction Vietnam! Krosa looks like a huge
doughnut on the water vapor image. (Credit: CIMSS)

• A low pressure system is impacting Western Europe. Rain showers throughout the day.
• Showers and storms are moving into southern Australia. A trough is producing an isolated shower and storm in the western interior.
• Took two strong earthquakes yesterday: first a 6.3 in Taiwan and then a 6.6 in Chile. (Taiwan earthquake: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usc000ksdy#summary, Chile earthquake: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000kqnc#summary)
• Solar wind ramped up to around 500 km/s yesterday from an incoming CME but was not strong enough to produce a geomagnetic storm. Sunspots are turning more equatorial and 1884 in the middle have the energy for a moderate to strong flare. Also, a coronal hole stream may impact Earth early next week. M-class flare chances in the next 24 hours: 40%. X-class flare chances in the next 24 hours: 5%.

Sunspot 1884 is a likely source for flaring
(Credit: SpaceWeather.com)