Thursday, August 29, 2013

8/29/2013 Daily Update: Partly Sunny Thursday, Juliette Forms Along Baja California, Kong-rey Swipes Taiwan

Good afternoon everyone!

After a round of storms yesterday which brought localized flooding in places, today is going to feature less in the way of storms but still possible anytime in the afternoon.

TODAY: Partly sunny with a few showers and storms possible in the PM hours. Highs in the upper 70s, near 80 degrees. Winds from the NE at 5 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with lows around 60 degrees. Winds from the E at 5 mph, becoming calm.

TOMORROW: Beautiful day with most sunny skies. Highs in the low 80s. Winds from the W at 5 mph.

After a brief respite Friday, the weekend features a second round of storms, especially late Sunday.


ATLANTIC TROPICS

  • Fairly quiet in the tropics though there are two waves to monitor. First, is the open wave in the Central Atlantic which is expected to track into the Caribbean in the coming days where it should encounter somewhat, more favorable place for it to develop. Model support has mostly vanished though but I still think it can do something with what it has. The 0z NAVGEM shows a tropical cyclone in 144 hours over the Lesser Antilles. In my opinion, this certainly remains a possibility.
  • Secondly is the wave over Africa that NHC has marked for tropical development over land for the first time. It has a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours which is reasonable since it really hasn't touched water yet. Past runs of the GFS had shown a tropical cyclone from this one but has dropped the idea.

NATIONAL WEATHER

  • Isolated storms in New England, dry elsewhere in the Northeast
  • Storms possible in the Southeast, otherwise mostly hot there
  • The heat in the central part of the nation continues. Hot, hot, hot!
  • Severe thunderstorms are possible in the Minnesota, Wisconsin area.
  • T-storms in the afternoon for the Southwest
  • Sunny across the West Coast, storms in the far Pacific Northwest

WORLD WEATHER

  • Tropical Storm Juliette formed right on the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. It's going to result in heavy rains and moisture feeding into the rains occurring in the Southwest.
  • Tropical Storm Kong-rey has shaved the eastern coast of Taiwan and is now heading toward Japan.
  • Thunderstorms for eastern Europe
  • Severe thunderstorms possible across Southeast Australia. Showers and storms impacting southern regions.
Water vapor of Tropical Storm Kong-rey
along Taiwan
Tropical Storm Juliette skimming Baja California

EARTHQUAKES

  • There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.

SPACE WEATHER

  • A large filament erupted from the sun and generated a CME. It was directed mostly south of Earth but a piece of it may make it. We'll see.
  • Meanwhile, sunspots aren't actively flaring and M-class flare chances are at 1%.

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