Mainly dry today with rain moving in the late afternoon and evening hours. It will turn breezy along with the cold frontal passage. Modest instability could trigger thunderstorms overnight, with pockets of heavy rain. Any plans today should be OK... it's tonight when it turns wet. Rain clears after Sunday morning.
TODAY: Partly sunny with showers in the late afternoon and evening hours. Highs in the lower to mid 70s. Winds from the S at 10 to 15 mph with gusts near 30 mph.
TONIGHT: Heavy rain and a chance of thunderstorms with lows in the lower 60s. Winds from the S at 5 to 10 mph with gusts as high as 20 mph.
TOMORROW: Showers and storms in the morning, clearing out by the afternoon and turning sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Winds from the NW at 5 to 15 mph.
Cooler Monday, temps only in the lower 60s but turning more seasonable by the middle of next week.
ATLANTIC TROPICS
- A lull in the action in the Atlantic. Only main feature is the wave east of Bermuda but it is about to enter cooler waters and is out to sea anyways. Chances of development are minuscule.
- With activity on the low side, I ask the question... so how are we doing? Our last named storm was Ingrid, which was the 9th storm of the season. But only two hurricanes so far and they were the last two storms (Humberto and Ingrid). Not to mention they were barely above hurricane status. Based on the chart below, by September 21st, an average season would have 7 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. We are slightly above normal for named storms (9), but below normal for hurricanes (2) and well below if you take ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) into factor. However, even though the season has been fairly tame, don't tell that to Mexico. In what is becoming one of the nation's worst flooding disasters in history, it's fortunate there aren't more intense storms this season. It could very well be much worse. Goes to show even tropical storms and minimal hurricanes can be devastating, especially in an area vulnerable like Mexico. 2013 may be quiet in terms of activity, but it sure hasn't as far as impacts go.
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| Average Atlantic season by named systems, hurricanes, category 3 or greater (Credit: NOAA) |
NATIONAL WEATHER
- Heavy rain and storms in the East Coast along a cold front stretching all the way from Canada to the Gulf. Pretty impressive structure.
- Storms along the Gulf Coast, taking advantage of tropical moisture.
- Dry and warm for the Plains, cooler behind the cold front in the Great Lakes region
- Cooler with chances of showers in the Northwest
WORLD WEATHER
- Super Typhoon Usagi affecting Taiwan and the Philippines, passing south of Taiwan into the South China Sea. It is expected to directly hit Hong Kong as a strong typhoon. This is a serious storm producing major storm surges, winds, and rainfall so it's good there have been no reports of serious casualties or damage so far. Let's keep it this way... this was anticipated days in advance, about a week if you're a weather geek. ;) (Take a look at the World Weather section, 3 bullets down on the 9/15/2013 Update: http://westernmaweather.blogspot.com/2013/09/9152013-daily-update-sunny-sunday.html)
- Another storm in the Western Pac, Tropical Storm Pabuk forms well southeast of Japan but could come near the island nation by middle of next week.
- Low over Europe delivering clouds and showers especially in eastern Europe
- High pressure continues its dominance in inland Australia, with showers isolated in Southeast Australia.
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| On path toward Hong Kong by Monday, a Category 1 or 2 typhoon by then (Credit: Joint Typhoon Warning Center) |
EARTHQUAKES
- A 6.1 earthquake shook the waters of Indonesia yesterday (or this morning UTC time): http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000jx0m#summary
SPACE WEATHER
- The sun is slowly becoming more active and is producing low-level C-flares now. Still low activity by all means... the main sunspot to look out for is 1850 in the eastern side of the sun turning toward Earth. M-class flare chances today: 5%
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| Sunspot 1850 is responsible for the recent C-class flares (Credit: SpaceWeather.com) |
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