Sunday, November 17, 2013

11/17/2013 Daily Update: Gusty Showers/Storms Approaching; Severe Outbreak - Chicago, Indy; 7.8 Scotia Sea Quake

Good morning everyone!

A murky, cloudy day for today ahead of showers arriving this evening. It's going to be milder than normal with highs into the mid to upper 50s. Temps won't be dropping much overnight staying around the 50s and winds increasing from the south as a potent cold front pushes east. That cold front will be responsible for severe weather in the lower Great Lakes and Ohio valley regions today (see more under national weather). While we won't see what they are seeing out west, there is the chance for a scattered, gusty storm Monday morning. The front clears out by Monday afternoon and temps drop accordingly by Monday night.

TODAY: A chance of a shower late afternoon, evening hours otherwise cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Rain chances increasing, becoming widespread overnight. Winds increasing as well... from the south at 5 to 15 mph. Mild night with lows in the lower 50s.

TOMORROW: Showers in the morning. There is the chance of an embedded gusty thunderstorm along with the line of showers. Winds from the S at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts under a storm. Clearing in the afternoon. Mild, highs in the lower to mid 60s in the early afternoon before temps start to drop.

Here is the simulated radar from one model output (the WRF) on the progression of showers/storms tomorrow morning. Link from @Ants_SNEweather, a great source for weather updates in Southern New England. If you're on Twitter, I highly recommend following him!

Simulated radar from the WRF at 13Z (8am EST) (Credit: Wright Weather)

NATIONAL WEATHER

  • The big headline news is the dangerous and potent severe outbreak for the lower Great Lakes and Ohio valley. Cities in areas such as Chicago and Indianapolis are in for some nasty weather. A powerful cold front is expected to trigger severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts, gusty heavy downpours and yes, tornadoes. In fact, SPC has issued a PDS (potentially dangerous situation) tornado watch for much of Illinois and surrounding areas this morning. The thinking is discrete supercells develop on the onset before forming into a defined squall line. These supercells will take advantage of the favorable high wind shear, moisture, and instability in place for producing large hail, strong winds, and tornadoes. Once activity becomes squall-like oriented, widespread gusty and damaging winds will be the main threat. Like in any severe weather situation, it's hard to pinpoint a specific location so if you're under a watch, keep aware and have a plan if a tornado warning is issued.
Greatest threat of severe storms and tornadoes (Credit: Accuweather.com)

WORLD WEATHER

  • Europe - Low generating showers in SW Europe, another one around the English Channel
  • Australia - Showers and severe storms possible for NE Australia

EARTHQUAKES


SPACE WEATHER

  • Flaring is on the low side despite a large sunspot in 1899. You would think it would be the most likely source for flaring but in fact that belongs to 1900, which produced a few C-class flares and a low-level M-class flare this morning. 1897 is also a region to be monitored... composed from a unique group of dark cores scattered around the disk. M-class flare chances: 60%. X-class flare chances: 15%.
1899 is huge, but not active. 1897 and 1900 are the
ones to monitor for flaring. (Credit: SolarHam.net)
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