Saturday, December 29, 2012

December 29th Snowstorm: What to Expect

The first week of winter has gone by and what a way to kick things off! We are already into our third "snow event" of the season (fourth if you count the November one) which is remarkable considering how dull last year's winter was. So here are the details on what to expect today. In the morning, clouds will increase and gradually light snow overspreads the region by mid-morning or early afternoon. The good news is it should be a quick mover and be gone by Saturday night or very early Sunday at the latest. Also, we won't have to deal with mixed precipitation which is always good and the snow coming down should be "fluffier" and therefore easier to shovel unlike the previous storm three days ago. As low pressure passes across coastal waters southeast of Southern New England, light to moderate snow develops in the afternoon hours. Heavier bands could form the further southeast one is. Be advised that snow can reduce visibility to less than a quarter miles at times and road conditions will be slick. Conditions should improve starting around dinner time and end by Saturday night but not without leaving plowable snow behind for much of the area.

Due to the inconsistency of computer models on how they are handling this strengthening storm, my confidence is fairly low. That means impacts could potentially be lower or stronger than previously thought. A thing that has me concerned is if the system moves slower or closer as suggested by a few computer models, that would mean a stronger, more powerful storm in turn increasing snowfall totals substantially. If I were to bust (not saying I am!!!), most likely it would be on the high side. It is awful to have low confidence going into an event but it is what it is. So with that in mind, here are the amounts I am forecasting across Western Massachusetts. Most of the region should see a general 2-4" of snow with higher amounts across Eastern Hampden County where 3-6" is likely since they are closer to the center of the storm. Further away to the northwest, 1-3" is expected. I have also included a Southern New England snowfall map which shows where the jackpot amounts are located: Northern RI, Northeast CT, and parts of inland Southeast MA. 4-8" is my best bet in those areas. After the storm departs, colder air arrives in time for next week and New Years. As always, you can follow me on Twitter (@SenhW) where I will bring you the latest developments of this impending snowstorm. Stay safe everyone and keep warm!

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