10/4/2013 Daily Update: Chances of Showers Today, Karen Forms in the Gulf, Severe Weather Outbreak in Iowa

Good morning everyone and Happy Friday!

The next few days are going to feature more clouds than sun and chances for showers from a warm front followed by a cold front for early next week.

TODAY: A chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Light winds.

TONIGHT: A chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Lows around the mid 50s. Winds are calm.

TOMORROW: Mostly cloudy with an isolated shower possible. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Light winds.

ATLANTIC TROPICS

• Karen has been named in the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to impact somewhere east of Louisiana. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches are up. A pretty strong tropical storm with winds of 60 mph. Main issue, though, would be the heavy rains and flooding threat. Parts of the region could see over 5" of rain. Also, with every tropical system is the threat for tornadoes.

NHC's projected path of Karen takes it into the Upper Gulf Coast

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Strong to severe afternoon storms likely in Iowa and surrounding areas. Keep a close eye to the sky there and head towards shelter if a severe warning is issued for your area.
• A few showers, otherwise dry and seasonable in the Northeast
• Warm across the Southeast, some showers and storms possible along the Gulf Coast with the leading edge of Karen nearing
• Cooler in the West with the Northwest catching a break from the rain

WORLD WEATHER

• Busy in the Western Pacific with Fitow as a Category 2 typhoon but is expected to track toward China and weaken upon approach
• Tropical Storm Danas has formed west of Guam and the islands there and is taking a beeline at the same exact path Fitow is currently.
• Storms and rain showers for much of Western Europe
• A high in Southeast Australia is directing showers and storms to the south. Tasmania may be impacted again though.

EARTHQUAKES

• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.

SPACE WEATHER

• Geomagnetic activity is calming and sunspots turning in are showing some signs of life with C-class flares detected from Sunspot 1856. M-class flare chances are at 5%.

Sunspots to the left are producing C-class flares
(Credit: SpaceWeather.com)