10/21/2013 Daily Update: Lovely Afternoon After Cool Start, Raymond Becomes 1st Major Eastern Pacific Hurricane

Good morning everyone!

It is cold this morning with lows around freezing. We warm up for the afternoon and rebound back into the mid 60s.

TODAY: Sunny with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear with lows in the lower 40s. Winds from the S at 5 to 10 mph.

TOMORROW: A small chance of a shower in the afternoon otherwise partly sunny with highs in the lower 60s. A bit breezy with winds from the SW at 5 to 15 mph.

A substantial blast of cold air awaiting on Wednesday. Forget 60s, highs may barely reach 50! That's how cold this airmass will be. Also is the chance of snow flurries Wednesday night with a low departing south of the region. Low confidence as recent runs take the low too far south without having any impact. We will see what happens but rather or not it snows, winter will definitely be evident by Wednesday!

ATLANTIC TROPICS

• Holy crap. The Atlantic suddenly comes out fighting. A tropical wave declared Invest 90L quite literally decided to spin a little. NHC is calling for a 60% chance of development in the next 24 hours. Either way, it will be short-lived with no impacts to land. At least there's something to talk about without me dissing this section. :)

A harbinger to come? (Credit: NHC)

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Nice in the Northeast
• Beautiful too in the Southeast
• Tropical moisture feeding into some storms in the Louisiana Gulf
• Cool air moving into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Snow showers in the Great Lakes region with a clipper system
• Mild and dry for the Rockies and the West

WORLD WEATHER

• Typhoon Francisco as expected is weakening and down to a Category 2. Should have relatively minimal impacts for Japan which is good news. Of course, it's wise to be prepared for the worst as each storm is different.
• Meanwhile, Raymond rapidly strengthens into a Category 3 and becomes the first major hurricane this year in the Eastern Pacific. Raymond is churning large swells along the SW Mexican coastline. Raymond should stall until Wednesday, before finally heading west out to sea.
• Back to the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Lekima forms behind its big brother Francisco and is going to be another powerful typhoon.
• The UK had a tornado yesterday: pic.twitter.com/58ExRGlyhX More rain and storms today.
• The New South Wales bushfires continues to run wild. Maybe some relief with rain showers around Sydney but most are holding south. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/australia-bushfires-new-south-wales-declares-state-of-emergency-as-blaze-threatens-sydney-8892509.html

5 day track of Francisco takes it toward Japan as a weakened
tropical storm (Credit: Wunderground)

Raymond lashing Mexico but stays at sea (Credit: CIMSS)

EARTHQUAKES

• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.

SPACE WEATHER

• Sunspots 1875 and 1877 has been developing and do have the magnetic complexity to produce a moderate to strong flare. Have to believe they will pop someday. NOAA seems to be thinking the same by upping M-class flare chances to 25% in the next 24 hours. They will be directly Earth-facing in a few days.
• Awaiting a weak coronal hole stream to arrive today or tomorrow. A brief geomagnetic disturbance is possible, nothing more than that.

Wait and see game... (Credit: SpaceWeather.com)