10/2/2013 Daily Update: Feels More Like Summer than Autumn, Moderate Solar Storm Impacts, Wild Storms Hit Tasmania

Good morning everyone!

Temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s this afternoon... it will feel more like summer than autumn in New England!

TODAY: Sunny with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Winds from the W at 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear with lows in the upper 40s. Calm winds.

TOMORROW: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid 70s. Winds from the SW at 5 mph.

Rain showers arrive Friday into Saturday and put a brief halt at the extended dry spell we've had. More rain opportunities early next week.

ATLANTIC TROPICS

• Jerry is out in the central Atlantic and is fairly stationary but will trek east in the next few days with no impacts to land. Jerry's remnants could impact Europe
• Eyeing Invest 97L in the Caribbean Sea where it could organize into a tropical system as models are predicting.

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Warm and dry weather for the Northeast
• Also warm in the Southeast. Showers and storms impacting the Gulf regions.
• Showers and storms from a low in Nebraska and the Dakotas
• The season's first snowstorm of the season is taking shape in the northern Rockies with heavy snow in the higher elevations which adds fuel to a potential severe weather outbreak tomorrow in the Midwest.
• Heavy rain for the Northwest

WORLD WEATHER

• Two storms in the Western Pacific: Tropical Storm Sepat is impacting the outer Japanese coastline but no direct hit with the storm moving NE away from Japan.
• Tropical Storm Fitow, however, could mean business with strengthening to a typhoon likely but good news is still days away from any impacts.
• Rain and storms for parts of the U.K. and Western Europe
• Severe storms impacted Tasmania yesterday and knocked out power for thousands of people. Finally gets a break with the low moving away and a high replacing it. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/02/wild-storms-lash-north-tasmania

Sepat moving away from Japan (Credit: Wunderground)

Extreme weather hits Tassie (Credit: RSOE)

EARTHQUAKES

• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today. However, a strong 5.8 hit the Owen Fracture Zone region, further destabilizing the region around the major 7.7 Pakistanian earthquake last week. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000k49t#summary
• NOTE: Since the government shutdown may disrupt the timeliness of the USGS feed, I may have to resort to other sources for earthquake info.

SPACE WEATHER

• A CME buffeted Earth's magnetosphere last night, sparking a moderate G2 level geomagnetic storm and brought a dazzling display of auroras across Canada and the northern U.S. The solar wind speed took a huge leap from 300 km/s to over 600 km/s a little past 01 UTC signaling the arrival of the CME. The Kp index peaked at 6 which is moderate on the scale. 
• The arrival came earlier than expected from the magnetic filament that erupted from the sun Sunday night. Imagine a weather forecast being off by 1 or 2 days? Yeah, space weather forecasting is definitely at its infancy. Suppose if the CME came a little faster, then disruptions in satellites or even power grids are a possibility. A long way to go in learning about our sun. The solar storm looks to be subsiding but strong solar winds could cause additional minor storms.
• New sunspots are appearing on the sun's eastern limb. Sunspot 1855 is growing but none posing a strong threat for an M-class flare.

A sharp bump in the solar wind on the ACE (Credit: SWPC)