8/27/2013 Daily Update: Slight Chance of Shower/Storm Today, 13 People Dead From Fernand

Good morning everyone!

Rain, even heavy at times, overnight has cleared but we do run a chance of a slight chance of a shower or storm in the afternoon.

TODAY: Partly sunny with a small chance of a shower or storm in the afternoon. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s. Winds from the N at 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Isolated shower or storm possible, otherwise mostly cloudy skies. Lows in the lower 60s. Generally light winds.

TOMORROW: Partly sunny skies with a shot at storms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Winds from the N at 5 mph.

Thinking better shot of storms on Wednesday west, whereas on Thursday better shot shifts east.

ATLANTIC TROPICS

• The tropical wave couple hundred miles from the Cape Verde Islands that's been mentioned is in an area of slightly favorable conditions but dry air on the north-side is hindering progress. After a few "optimistic" runs, the GFS doesn't do squat about this puppy. However, the ECMWF and the CMC does show development in 7-days time once it nears the Lesser Antilles. Something to watch.
• The GFS does show interest with another tropical wave about to come out of Africa and has been consistent on development in the next 5 days. Based on the path shown on the GFS, there's a high likelihood this one recurves out to sea. (Image below)

This morning's 6z GFS run at 120 hours showing
a tropical cyclone over the Cape Verde Islands

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Spotty thunderstorms persist in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Possible strong to severe storms along Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan.
• Dry and warmer in the Southeast though storms possible along the Florida coast
• High pressure in the Midwest means hot and dry conditions. Temperatures above 90 but factoring in the humidity, it will feel more than 100 degrees.
• Heavy rain and thunderstorms in the Southwest present flash flooding threats as the effects of Ivo are being felt.
• Sunny weather for the West Coast

WORLD WEATHER

• At least 13 people dead after Tropical Storm Fernand made landfall in central Mexico from torrential rains triggering deadly landslides, making Fernand the deadliest storm of the 2013 season so far. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/27/us-storm-fernand-idUSBRE97P0QE20130827
• Tropical Storm Kong-rey in the Western Pacific is making a close swipe at Taiwan, tracking toward Japan by the end of the week.
• Low pressure bringing storms in central and southeastern Europe
• Low producing showers and storms for southern parts of Australia, rest remains dry.

EARTHQUAKES

• In the United States, a minor M2.7 earthquake hit New York north of Glens Falls (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ld60047501#summary) and a somewhat moderate M4.2 earthquake hit NE of Reno, Nevada (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/nn00421303#summary).
• Worldwide, there were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.

SPACE WEATHER

• Earth is facing a coronal hole stream set to arrive by this weekend.
• Not much going on with the sun. The largest of the sunspots, 1835, is fairly decent-sized but remains quiet for now. Chances of M-class flares are very low at 1%.

Sunspots are either stable or decaying
(Courtesy: spaceweather.com)