The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined a rare moderate risk of severe weather for the Northeast in their Day 2 Convective Outlook which includes Western Massachusetts. Such a thing is quite rare here especially one day out so I can't stress enough that it needs to be taken seriously. The top left image indicates a moderate risk for portions of our area (slight risk elsewhere). The top right image indicates a 45% chance of severe weather at any one location inside the moderate risk. Severe weather ingredients are coming together for a possible severe weather event on Thursday. Temps near 90° and dew points in the low to mid 60s will provide 2500-4000 J/kg Surface CAPE and -5°C to -7°C Lifted Index which are sufficient for severe weather here. Combined that with about 40-50kts 0-6km bulk shear, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Timing of the storms seems to be afternoon into the evening hours but we may contend with a few showers in the morning. Tomorrow's event is highly dependent on how much daytime heating we get and if we can get rid of the morning clouds/debris quickly. Main threats are damaging winds, large hail, heavy flooding rains and maybe even an isolated tornado. The SPC did mention a derecho but I'm hesistant if there really is one tomorrow. No question the potential is there for a widespread wind damage but there are criterias that need to be met for a true "derecho" like length of the squall line, duration, and continuous severe wind reports along the way. But having the SPC mentioning it upfront is certainly telling that this is no ordinary threat. Stay tuned and follow my Twitter (@SenhW) for the latest on the severe weather potential tomorrow!
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