8/22/2013 Daily Update: Few PM Storms Possible, Double CME Impacts Expected

Good afternoon everyone!

Some changes to the forecast with afternoon thunderstorms possible. Today is going to be the most humid day in the stretch before cooler conditions return for the weekend.

TODAY: Partly sunny with showers and storms in the afternoon, a few of which could be strong in locales. Highs around mid 80s. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Chance of storms continuing into the early evening hours, otherwise mostly cloudy skies with temps dropping into the lower to mid 60s. Winds becoming light overnight.

TOMORROW: Mostly sunny with a chance of an isolated afternoon storm. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Winds from the NW-N at 5 to 10 mph.

The weekend looks comfortable with temperatures in the 70s/80s with abundant sunshine!

ATLANTIC TROPICS

• No development foreseen in the near future.

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Hot and humid in the Northeast with scattered thunderstorms ahead of cold front to the NW
• Unsettled in the Southeast with scattered thunderstorms
• High pressure is bringing dry and sunny weather for the South and the heart of the nation
• Sunny in the West with spotty thunderstorms possible. A few could be strong around Oregon.
• Warmer air arriving to the Pacific Northwest

WORLD WEATHER

• Typhoon Trami made landfall in the Southeastern Chinese coastline bringing heavy rain, strong winds, and flooding. No deaths were reported as of today but it did kill 17 people in Philippines as a result of the flooding.
• Pewa is still out there in the Western Pacific and should not be a threat except for mariners.
• Tropical Depression 9-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm soon. Next name on the list is Ivo. Could have impacts to the Baja Peninsula as early as Sunday.
• 21 construction workers in Northwest China were killed from flash flooding. China has been plagued by flooding where hundreds have been killed recently. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/21-killed-by-flash-flood-at-northwest-china-construction-site-as-heavy-rains-batter-country/2013/08/21/2b8d64b2-0a23-11e3-89fe-abb4a5067014_story.html
• Coastal low near the United Kingdom is bringing stormy weather for the nation. Isolated storms possible for the rest of Europe.
• Consistent dry weather across the northern part of Australia while showers and storms affect the southern region.

NHC track of Tropical Depression Nine-e

EARTHQUAKES

• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.

SPACE WEATHER

• The large filament that blasted from the sun on August 20th is set to make a glancing blow at Earth's magnetosphere tomorrow.
• Another partial and faint halo CME yesterday was produced and expected to impact Earth by this weekend.
• Sunspot 1827 poses a threat for M-class flares today, however chances are slim with a 10% chance of an M-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Courtesy of spaceweather.com

8/21/2013 Daily Update: Sunny and Summery Wednesday, Trami Impacts China/Taiwan

Good morning everyone!

A touch of summer is in the air with temperatures approaching 90 degrees today and tomorrow.

TODAY: Sunny with highs in the mid 80s for the hilltowns, approaching or eclipsing 90 in the valleys. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Winds will be light.

TOMORROW: Partly to mostly sunny with afternoon storms. Turning more humid. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

A cold front is slated to arrive late Thursday bringing slightly cooler air for Friday.

ATLANTIC TROPICS

• The tropics is so quiet you can hear a pin drop. Like seriously.

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Very warm and humid conditions in the Northeast. Locally severe storms in the Upper Midwest along Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan from an impending cold front
• Thunderstorms continue for the Southeast and Gulf Coast with moist flow from the Gulf of Mexico. 
• Very warm and dry across the South and the Plains. Only exception is scattered storms in the Northern Plains.
• Seasonal weather for the West Coast with isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.
• Dry and hot in the Pacific Northwest

WORLD WEATHER

• Trami is now a typhoon in the Western Pacific destined to skim northern Taiwan and make landfall in China around Fuzhou.
• Tropical Storm Pewa in the Western Pacific is meandering in no man's land.
• There is development in the Eastern Pacific with two tropical waves closeby. Perhaps a Fujiwhara interaction between the two as shown on the GFS? We can only hope and watch, can we? Especially since the Atlantic is quiet...
• Coastal low near the coast of the United Kingdom is bringing clouds and shower chances for the region. Isolated showers and storms in Eastern Europe otherwise dry.
• Australia's weather has been on repeat with fronts bringing showers and storms crossing southern parts of the continent and New Zealand while rest of region remains dry.

Satellite view of Typhoon Trami. A nice developed eye can be seen
as the storm moves toward China.

EARTHQUAKES

• A M6.2 earthquake shook Mexico not long before the writing of this article. Details: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000j83t#summary

SPACE WEATHER

• The CME from last weekend has indeed glanced the Earth sparking a minor geomagnetic storm with the Kp-index rising to 4.
• A filament erupted from the Sun yesterday morning and another CME is hurled at Earth's direction. Like last time, it is not direct. Regardless, any impacts should arrive in two days from now.
• Solar activity is low but new Sunspot 1827 is capable of producing future solar flares.

Courtesy of spaceweather.com

8/20/2013 Daily Update: Near 90 Today, Philippines Flooding

Good afternoon everyone!

Temperatures are on the increase for the next few days with more humid air arriving from the south and the jet stream displaced north into Canada.

TODAY: Sunny with highs in the mid to upper 80s and near 90. Winds from the W at 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Clear with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Winds turning light overnight.

TOMORROW: Sunny skies with highs in the mid 80s and reaching 90 degrees especially in the valleys. Winds from the SW at 5 to 10 mph.

By Thursday afternoon/Friday, a cold front will swing through the region bringing storm chances and cooler air back in the forecast.

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Sunny and dry in the Northeast with high pressure
• Scattered thunderstorms in the Southeast. Humid.
• Hot weather across the South and the Plains with few storms around
• Nice weather for the West Coast and Pacific Northwest

WORLD WEATHER

• Tropical Storm Trami in the Western Pacific is one to monitor as it is expected to impact Northern Taiwan tomorrow. Meanwhile, Pewa's strengthening died down abruptly but it is expected to strengthen back into a typhoon. Unala is gone and another tropical depression has taken shape in the Central Pacific.
• Severe flooding in the Philippines from heavy monsoonal rains has killed at least 7 and tens of thousands are forced to evacuate. 70% of Manila, the nation's capital, is underwater. Schools, government offices, and financial markets, are closed. http://www.cnn.com/2013/08/20/world/asia/philippines-floods/
• An isolated tornado touched down in Central Germany from yesterday's storms. Thankfully, that system is out of the way and shifted northeast but a next low and round of storms is heading toward the United Kingdom for tomorrow. Showers forecasted for Northeast Europe today.
• Same story with showers affecting southern portions of Australia and New Zealand while high pressure remains firm for the rest of the continent.

Tornado report in Central Germany
(Source: http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php)

EARTHQUAKES

• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.

SPACE WEATHER

• An off-target CME that blasted from the sun two days ago could still trigger a geomagnetic storm today or tomorrow.
• A large halo CME blasted from the sun yesterday but the good news is it was on the far side of the sun and not Earth-facing. A cool spectacle can be seen on SOHO where a sundiving comet plunged into the sun and perishing the icy-cold body from the solar system. A neat image of the CME and sundiving comet is on spaceweather.com.
• The sun is dotted with sunspots but none look too significant except for Sunspot 1825 which harbors energy for M-class flares. Percentage kept at 25% chance of a M-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Sunspot 1825 possesses energy for M-class
solar flares (Source: spaceweather.com)

8/19/2013 Daily Update: Warmer Monday, 90 Degrees by Midweek

Good morning everyone!

The coastal storm that brought us clouds yesterday has moved out allowing for sunshine today. It is going to be warmer and humidity is on the uptick as well.

TODAY: Warmer than yesterday. Mostly sunny with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Winds from the W at 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Winds from the W at 5 to 10 mph turning calm overnight.

TOMORROW: Sunny with highs in the lower to upper 80s. Winds from the W at 5 to 10 mph.

A good shot at 90 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday as winds turn more to the southwest bringing in the warmer air!

ATLANTIC TROPICS

• Lone source of development with a tropical wave off of Africa but NHC has since dropped the chances altogether.
• Erin has dissipated from tropical cyclone status.

NATIONAL WEATHER

• High pressure and dry weather for the Northeast. Few storms possible in the Mid-Atlantic.
• Humid with more showers and storms in the Southeast. Hot but typical heat in the South.
• Hot along the West Coast and the Plains. Many places will reach 90 degrees inland. That is the source of our heat come midweek.

WORLD WEATHER

• The Pacific continues to light up with three storms in the Western Pacific basin.
• Tropical Storm Trami in the Western Pacific is a threat for Taiwan and could meet typhoon criteria soon.  Typhoon Pewa is a Category 1 typhoon has open waters ahead and will have plenty of time to become even stronger.
• Once Tropical Storm Unala is now a depression and looks to be short-lived due to shear.
• Thunderstorms possible for Central Europe. Sunny and hot in Spain and parts of Eastern Europe as well.
• Showers across southern parts of Australia while dry and seasonable elsewhere.

EARTHQUAKES

• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.

SPACE WEATHER

• After two M-class flares two days ago, solar activity is back on the low side. We are awaiting an indirect CME impact from those flares which could happen as early as tomorrow.
• Sunspots 1818 and 1824 have energy to produce M-flares. 25% chance of an M-flare in the next 24 hours.

Courtesy of spaceweather.com