8/18/2013 Daily Update: Cloudy But OK Sunday, M3-class Flare

Good afternoon everyone!

Yesterday was great and today is going to be good but we'll have to contend with clouds. This is due to a storm system sliding south of the region.

TODAY: Cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Winds from the S at 5 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with lows in the lower to mid 50s. Generally calm winds.

TOMORROW: Warmer. Sunny with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Winds from the W-NW at 5 to 10 mph.

Looking like upper 80s Tuesday and 90s finally Wednesday and Thursday.

ATLANTIC TROPICS

• Well, it's the end of Invest 92L. It showed some promising circulation at first but ultimately it remained disorganized and could never develop fully. However, the eastern flank of Invest 92L is producing heavy rain and flooding potential for the Gulf Coast states and the Southeast today.
• Erin has weakened into a tropical depression and should degenerate soon.
• Watching the wave coming off of Africa which has a good chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the future. NHC gives the wave a 10% chance of developing in the next 48 hours.

Courtesy of http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

NATIONAL WEATHER

• High pressure and dry weather dominates the Northeast. A coastal low along the NJ coast will bring chances of showers to parts of the region.
• Tropical moisture associated with previous Invest 92L poses flooding threats for the Gulf Coast and Southeast.
• Scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon for the Southwest. Also hot there along with the Plains.
• Dry and sunny in the Pacific Northwest

WORLD WEATHER

• Tropical Storm Trami has formed east of Taiwan and could strengthen into a typhoon next week as it swings toward Taiwan.
• Tropical Storm Pewa in the Central Pacific is in no man's land and should become a typhoon soon.
• Cold front producing showers in northern France and Germany up to Northern Europe (Sweden, Finland, Norway). Sunny across Southern Europe.
• Mirror image in Australia with showers in southern parts while northern regions are sunny with the high overhead.

EARTHQUAKES

• A M6.1 earthquake struck the Southwest Indian Ridge yesterday: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000j5ki#summary

SPACE WEATHER

• An M3-class flare followed by a smaller M1-class flare was hurled into space from Sunspot 1818 yesterday. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed but appears most of it should miss Earth. A glancing blow is possible and the CME would arrive Monday or Tuesday.
• A geomagnetic storm is possible today as solar wind speed levels are still high.
• Sunspot 1818 is decaying after putting out the M-class flare but continues to harbor energy for additional flares. Chances of an M-class flare down to 25% in the next 24 hours.

  

  CME blast from the M-class flare shown on SOHO

Courtesy of spaceweather.com

8/17/2013 Daily Update: Dry Weekend, Flooding Potential in Gulf and Southeast

Good morning everyone!

Similar story with wall-to-wall sunshine and seasonable temperatures. The weekend is going to be great!

TODAY: Sunny with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Light winds from the N-NE.

TONIGHT: Few clouds move in with temps dropping into the lower to mid 50s. Calm winds.

TOMORROW: Sunny turning more cloudy in the afternoon with a system moving south of the area. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Winds from the SW at 5-10 mph.

A peek at next week - We heat up starting Tuesday with increasing humidity and temperatures rising into the 90s. Still no considerable precipitation in the offing thanks to high pressure not budging.

ATLANTIC TROPICS

Courtesy of http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

• Invest 92L continues to churn in the Gulf of Mexico and there are signs of the system trying to wrap itself around with circulation NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. Even if it doesn't develop, tropical moisture associated with the upper level low brings the potential for flooding in the Gulf Coast and Southeastern states this weekend. NHC gives chances of development at 40% in the next 48 hours.
• After a brief downgrade to a tropical depression yesterday, Tropical Storm Erin regains her form. Anyhow, Erin will only pose a threat for mariners as she is expected to dissipate due to dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL).
• A big tropical wave coming off of Africa behind Erin needs to be watched closely. It should track south of Erin and be in a more favorable environment by taking a track south of the SAL.

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Dry and pleasant in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
• Flooding rain potential from upper level low in the Gulf for the Gulf Coast and Southeast
• Warm and sunny for the Great Plains, Midwest, and Upper Midwest
• Dry and warm in the West Coast with exception of showers in Northern Washington with the low in the Pacific

WORLD WEATHER

• Flash flooding potential from the remnants of Utor in Southeast China and Northern Vietnam
• Cool and showery in Northern Europe, dry and sunny in Southern Europe
• A stray storm is possible in Northeast Australia. Showers and storms for southern parts.
• EDIT (12:39 PM): Tropical Storm Pewa formed in the Central Pacific. There are two tropical depressions in the Western Pacific both in the vicinity of Taiwan.

EARTHQUAKES

• Intensity of aftershocks have died down in New Zealand
• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.

SPACE WEATHER

Courtesy of spaceweather.com

• The sun is still quiet though Sunspots 1817 and 1818 do harbor energy for additional flares. Chances of a M-flare stays at 35% in the next 24 hours.
• Geomagnetic disturbance from yesterday is starting to wane down.

8/16/2013 Daily Update: Splendid Friday, 6.5 Earthquake Hits New Zealand

Good morning everyone!

We continue our streak of beautiful days marked by comfortable temperatures and dry conditions with plenty of sunshine.

TODAY: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 70s in the Berkshires to low 80s in the valley. Winds from the W at 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear with lows in the lower 50s. Light winds.

TOMORROW: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Generally light winds from the west.

The 90s could return as early as next week. Be ready!

ATLANTIC TROPICS

Courtesy of http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

• Tropical Storm Erin meanders in the Atlantic with no threats to land in the foreseeable future. Should see her turn more toward the NW which indications are she'll likely be a fish storm.
• Invest 92L is trying to organize in the Yucatan Peninsula. There's a good chance today of it strengthening now that it's moving over the Gulf of Mexico and with lessening shear. NHC gives Invest 92L a 50% chance of developing in the next 48 hours.

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Gorgeous weather for the Northeast again.
• Wash, rinse, repeat: Showers and thunderstorms for the Southeast.
• Isolated thunderstorms in Texas
• Hot inland and dry in the Southwest and the West Coast. Few showers in NW Washington.

WORLD WEATHER

• Remnants of Utor brings heavy rains and flooding potential for Southeast China and Northern Vietnam.
• A tropical wave SW of Hawaii in the Central Pacific is on the verge of becoming a tropical cyclone. Since it's about to cross over the International Date Line, the JMA will take over.
• Showers and storms for the United Kingdom as a cold front arrives in Europe. Generally dry conditions elsewhere.
• Same story with fronts crossing Southern Australia producing showers and storms there. Sunny and dry in the rest of Australia.

EARTHQUAKES

• A M6.5 earthquake hit 22 km south of Blenheim, New Zealand: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000j4iz#summary. There have been sizable aftershocks since then, the largest of which were two M5.9 earthquakes.

SPACE WEATHER

• A high solar wind stream is producing a minor geomagnetic storm. The Kp-index rose to 5 last night and solar wind speeds are over 700 km/sec. Normal would be around 300 km/sec.
• None of the sunspots are actively flaring but still magnetically capable of producing M-class flares. NOAA forecasters put chances at 35% for a M-class flare in the next 24 hours. A sunspot on the eastern limb of the sun is turning toward the Earth.

8/15/2013 Daily Update: Pleasant Thursday, Tropical Storm Erin

Good afternoon everyone!

After a cool start to the day, it's going to be another pleasant one. Beautiful weather for your Thursday and it will stay that way for the next several days.

TODAY: Sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Winds from the W at 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear skies with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Generally calm winds.

TOMORROW: Sunny, with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. Winds from the W at 5 to 10 mph.

Quiet weather lasts into Sunday. Signs of heat in the forecast for next week.

ATLANTIC TROPICS

Courtesy of http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

• Tropical Depression 5 became Tropical Storm Erin out in the eastern Atlantic. The storm is expected to trek west across the Atlantic in the next 5 days. No threat to land in the near future.
• The tropical wave (Invest 92L) spinning in the Yucatan Peninsula has lost its circulation last night. But with moderate shear and hot water temperatures, we should start to see 92L slowly organizing. Due to the fact it is moving over the peninsula, we will have to wait until it returns back to water for future development. NHC gives it a 50/50 chance of it developing in the next 48 hours.

NATIONAL WEATHER

• Beautiful weather for the Northeast. Can't ask for anything more. :)
• Downpours and storms continue to plague the Southeast. Very humid and soupy conditions.
• Pleasant weather in the Missouri Valley points east. Some afternoon thunderstorms, though, west of there in the Plains with strong to severe potential in western Kansas and western Oklahoma.
• Dry and seasonable weather for the West Coast and the Rocky Mountains region. Hot in the Pacific Northwest. Cooler along the coast of Washington and Oregon with shower potential from onshore flow from coastal low in the Pacific.

WORLD WEATHER

• What is left of Utor continues to be a big rainmaker for Southeast China and Northern Vietnam capable of flash flooding and landslides. Utor is blamed for 1 death in China and 8 deaths in the Philippines. The storm has also sunk ships along the Chinese coastline.
• Mainly quiet and seasonable weather for Europe with showers and isolated thunderstorm chances inland. Dry weather won't last for long as a low pressure in the Northern Atlantic with associated cold front arrives on Friday/Saturday
• Gusty showers for parts of Southern Australia from a cold front. Dry for the rest of the continent.

EARTHQUAKES

• There were no earthquakes rated at or above M6 yesterday or so far today.

SPACE WEATHER

Courtesy of spaceweather.com

• Minor geomagnetic instability yesterday with Kp index reaching 4 last night for a brief time.
• Magnetic fields on Sunspots 1817 and 1818 have decayed but still a threat for M-class flares. NOAA puts the probabilities of an M-class flare in the next 24 hours at 30%.
• Solar wind from a coronal hole is now projected to arrive during the weekend.